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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TB
TB

TB

10-7

8
3
CHW

CHW

6-12

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,193 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHW no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL53.6%45.6%CHW NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 8 · CHW 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0010214008
CHW0000000033

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -112

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 8–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jonny DeLuca

Jonny DeLuca

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Derek Hill

Derek Hill

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB10-7
8
3
CHW6-12
TB10-7·CHW6-12
TB

TB

10-7

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000001
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44212111
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-33111010
SPRINT25.29
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-22111020
SPRINT25.716
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-33111100
SPRINT28.278
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44010000
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33010011
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-44110002
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-44110000
R. ViladeR. ViladeRF
0-11000000
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson2B
0-11000000
J. DeLucaJ. DeLucaRF
1-11113100
SPRINT2993
Team9-3434898355
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SulserC. Sulser★RP
2.0300110
J. ScholtensJ. Scholtens★RP
5.0100230
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.0100010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.0233210
Team9.0733560
CHW

CHW

6-12

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-55010001
SPRINT26.632
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-22010021
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000000
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000004
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.175
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
1-22110010
SPRINT26.941
T. PetersT. Peters★CF
0-33000000
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
2-44021000
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33000010
D. HillD. HillRF
1-11110000
SPRINT29.294
Team7-3131371056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
5.1744322
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1.0000000
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.2244221
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0000010
Team9.0988553

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • J. Scholtens
    77 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      49%·87.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      38%·92.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sulser
    36 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      31%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      36%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·81.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Englert
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      42%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      25%·75.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    92 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.8 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.1 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      16%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    39 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      38%·79.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      31%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·83.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hudson
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      14%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. McGuire
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • EP
      100%·65.0 mph·20% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

8

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Apr 14TBTB8@CHWCHW5
Apr 15TBTB8@CHWCHW3today
Apr 16TBTB5@CHWCHW3

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

Apr 14TBTB8@CHWCHW5
Apr 15TBTB8@CHWCHW3today
Apr 16TBTB5@CHWCHW3
Jul 31CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming
Aug 1CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming
Aug 2CHWCHW@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-11253%
CHWCHW-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 3rd Inning

TBTB
J. DeLuca

J. DeLuca

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Scholtens

J. Scholtens

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

CHWCHW
D. Hill

D. Hill

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TB beat CHW 8-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 66% WP

Caminero · homered to left (393 feet).

CHWTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+6pp→ 34% WP

Fraley · grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Díaz out at second.

TBTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 87% WP

Aranda · doubled to right, Walls scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0010214008
CHW0000000033

Period scoring

TB won 4 · CHW won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Caminero 1

1
0

Inn 6

Fraley 1

4
0

Inn 7

DeLuca 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

McGuire 2

TB
CHW

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 8·CHW 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  3. B9

    Benintendi struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  7. B9

    Ian Seymour pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  8. B9

    ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  9. B9

    Acuña grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Hill scored, McGuire out at second.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

    −2pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  16. B9

    Ian Seymour pitches to Luisangel Acuna

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 3

  17. B9

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  18. B9

    McGuire singled to center, Murray scored, Hill to third.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

    +1pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 1

  22. B9

    Antonacci scored on Seymour wild pitch, Hill to second on wild pitch by Seymour, Murray to third on wild pitch by Seymour.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 1

  23. B9

    Antonacci scored on Seymour wild pitch, Hill to second on wild pitch by Seymour, Murray to third on wild pitch by Seymour.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 0

  25. B9

    Ian Seymour pitches to Reese McGuire

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 2

  26. B9

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 0

  27. B9

    Hill singled to left, Murray to second, Antonacci to third.

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 8·CHW 0

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

8

Runs

3

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

20

TB

9

3

HR

0

5

BB

5

5

K

6

10

LOB

15

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·TB -112/CHW -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    63
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    308
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    305
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 94
    128
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 91
    27
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHW vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Chandler SimpsonTB
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    3.0± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.5%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tristan PetersCHW · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381