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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SD
ATH

ATH

26-25

3
7
SD

SD

30-20

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,180 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 58.7%May 21, 11 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

ATH 3 · SD 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH2001000003
SD200010137

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.8pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

ATH

no live price

SD

★ best
+114DraftKings

edge +14.8pp · implied 43.9%

BookATHSDBest edge
DraftKings-148+114★+14.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasSD -123

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Athletics, 7–3.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Henry Bolte

Henry Bolte

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Rodolfo Duran

Rodolfo Duran

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH26-25
3
7
SD30-20
ATH26-25·SD30-20
ATH

ATH

26-25

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT25.716
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-22111021
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-44000000
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44001002
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-33010011
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.891
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
2-33021010
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.920
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-22000011
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-22000001
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
0-11000000
Team8-3232383058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
6.1344333
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
1.1433020
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
0.1000000
Team8.0777353
SD

SD

30-20

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33210010
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44110000
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44012000
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44112102
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-33001001
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT2872
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33111100
SPRINT27.148
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-33000001
R. DuranR. Duran★C
1-11110020
S. SongS. Song2B
0-11000000
Team7-2929777335
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
5.0533440
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
0.2200100
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.1000030
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0100000
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000010
Team9.0833580

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Suarez
    46 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·78.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.9 mph·0% whiff

SD

  • J. Adam
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      56%·85.2 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      33%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      67%·82.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morejon
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      30%·91.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

3

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

May 23ATHATH3@SDSD7today
May 24ATHATH0@SDSD2
May 24ATHATH5@SDSD2

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

May 23ATHATH3@SDSD7today
May 24ATHATH0@SDSD2
May 24ATHATH5@SDSD2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+10250%
SDSD-12355%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 7th Inning

ATHATH
H. Bolte

H. Bolte

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

SDSD
R. Duran

R. Duran

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SD beat ATH 7-3. Laureano's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

SD vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 53% WP

Machado · homered to left center (370 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+18pp→ 60% WP

Castellanos · homered to left (382 feet).

SDBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+22pp→ 85% WP

Laureano · homered to left (401 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH2001000003
SD20001013—7

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · SD won 3

2
2

Inn 1

Kurtz 1

Machado 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Bolte 1

0
1

Inn 5

Castellanos 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Laureano 1

0
3

Inn 8

Sheets 2

0

Inn 9

ATH
SD

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  2. T9

    Thomas flied out to center.

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  6. T9

    Jeremiah Estrada pitches to Colby Thomas

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  7. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  8. T9

    Butler grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  11. T9

    Jeremiah Estrada pitches to Lawrence Butler

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  12. T9

    Butler hit for Hernaiz

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  13. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  14. T9

    McNeil struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

    +0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  19. T9

    Jeremiah Estrada pitches to Jeff McNeil

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  20. T9

    Estrada relieved Adam

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 3·SD 7

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 3·SD 7

  23. B8

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  24. B8

    Song popped out to first.

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  29. B8

    Jose Suarez pitches to Sung-Mun Song

    · ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

  30. B8

    Suarez relieved Perkins

    ·

    ATH 3·SD 7

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

SD

Home

3

Runs

7

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

10

TB

16

0

HR

3

5

BB

3

8

K

5

13

LOB

9

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATH +102/SD -123

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 97
    294
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 95
    16
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 94
    269
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    295
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    237
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 94
    206
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SD vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.