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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

10-10

6
4
CLE

CLE

11-10

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
23,988 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CLE no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL60.3%52.3%CLE NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 3 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 6 · CLE 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000606
CLE0000004004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1/VegasCLE -143

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 6–4.

BAL +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Weston Wilson

Weston Wilson

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Daniel Schneemann

Daniel Schneemann

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL10-10
6
4
CLE11-10
BAL10-10·CLE11-10
BAL

BAL

10-10

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-55000002
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33100021
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.29
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-33110021
SPRINT29.194
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010012
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44113102
SPRINT26.530
S. HuffS. HuffC
0-11000001
W. WilsonW. Wilson3B
1-11112000
Team7-33336761611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
5.0400420
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.2100110
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.2130120
A. NunezA. NunezRP
0.2111011
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000110
Team9.0741771
CLE

CLE

11-10

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44110010
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-44110010
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-11100040
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-55010003
SPRINT25.411
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-33010011
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
2-44124100
SPRINT27.457
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44010002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-44000000
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
0-44000001
G. ValeraG. ValeraLF
0-11000000
Team7-3434474177
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
6.0400350
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000030
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2122110
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.1211021
Team9.07666111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    100 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      32%·70.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      30%·89.7 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      28%·91.7 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      53%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      33%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      40%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·100.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SI
      54%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·85.5 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      23%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      42%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·96.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      17%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.6 mph·100% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      27%·86.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·81.0 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      19%·78.4 mph·45% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      30%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      71%·94.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·92.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    12 pitches·67% CSW
    • SL
      75%·90.7 mph·83% whiff
    • FS
      17%·81.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

6

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Apr 16BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 17BALBAL6@CLECLE4today
Apr 18BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 19BALBAL4@CLECLE8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 16BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 17BALBAL6@CLECLE4today
Apr 18BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 19BALBAL4@CLECLE8
Sep 7CLECLE@BALBALupcoming
Sep 8CLECLE@BALBALupcoming
Sep 9CLECLE@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+11946%
CLECLE-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 60pp · Top 8th Inning

BALBAL
W. Wilson

W. Wilson

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

CLECLE
D. Schneemann

D. Schneemann

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CLE 6-4. Jackson's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (60pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 7th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 83% WP

DeLauter · doubled to left, Kwan to third.

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 0-4
+34pp→ 97% WP

Schneemann · homered to right (407 feet), Kwan scored, DeLauter scored and Ramírez scored.

BALTop 8th Inning · 6-4
+60pp→ 84% WP

Jackson · homered to left center (390 feet), Taveras scored and Wilson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000606
CLE0000004004

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Schneemann 4

6
0

Inn 8

Jackson 3

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
CLE

Play-by-play · 636 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  3. B9

    Valera grounded out to second.

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  7. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to George Valera

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  8. B9

    Valera hit for Hoskins

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  9. B9

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  10. B9

    Manzardo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

    −8pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  15. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    · ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  16. B9

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  17. B9

    Ramírez walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

    +7pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  24. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  25. B9

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  26. B9

    DeLauter flied out to center.

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

    −4pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  29. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Chase DeLauter

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

  30. B9

    Helsley relieved Garcia

    ·

    BAL 6·CLE 4

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

6

Runs

4

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

11

TB

11

1

HR

1

6

BB

7

11

K

7

15

LOB

29

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8·BAL +119/CLE -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    14
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 96
    294
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    182
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    113
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 94
    224
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 94
    269
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    59.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.2%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.2%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175