• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 2
  • MLBTop 5
    SF 1@LAD 2
    +20.0ppmedium
  • NBA9:50 - 2nd
    OKC 31@LAL 26
    -13.6pphigh
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • WNBA logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
SF logo
SF
1
LiveTop 5th
LAD logo
LAD
2
Updated 11:27 PM ET
TOP 5TH+1LAD↑
SF

SF

16-24

1
2
LAD

LAD

24-16

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

62.0%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 65.3% LAD

SF 1 · 2 LAD

LAD +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingLADBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
    +9pp→ 78% WP

    Muncy · singled to right, Freeman scored, Smith to second, Tucker to third.

  • ↺Lead flipLADBottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
    +15pp→ 56% WP

    T. Hern · ández doubled to left.

  • ↺Lead flipSFTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
    +11pp→ 56% WP

    Devers · homered to right center (401 feet).

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.26

T. McDonald

1-0 · 1.29 ERA

vs

R. Sasaki

1-3 · 5.97 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAD no-vig %

61.6%

open 60.8% · +0.8

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL65.6%56.8%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 65.3%May 10, 5 PMMay 11, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One model★ Lock
● Live
SF1

SF

Giants

17-24

vs65.3%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

24-18

LAD0
SF 34.7%win prob65.3% LAD
LAD 1555 · SF 1469Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 64-39
60%Last 30 · 260-176
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.77

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Market came to the model

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

85.3%

+20.0ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

38

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Mon, May 11·Top 5th/Seriestied 1-1/VegasLAD -192
Updated 0s ago

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 5th
SF16-24
1
2
LAD24-16
SF16-24·LAD24-16
SF

SF

16-24

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-22000001
SPRINT27.148
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-22010000
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★1B
0-11000000
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-22111100
SPRINT25.716
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.251
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-22000001
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-22000002
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-22000001
J. RodríguezJ. Rodríguez★C
0-11000010
Team3-1616131115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. McDonaldT. McDonald★SP
4.0622120
Team4.0622120
LAD

LAD

24-16

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
0-22000000
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-22000001
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-22120000
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-22110000
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-22010000
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-22011000
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-22000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-11010010
SPRINT28.381
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-22000001
Team6-1717261012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
4.1311151
Team4.1311151

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0
May 12SFSF@LADLADtoday
May 13SFSF@LADLADupcoming
May 14SFSF@LADLADupcoming
May 15SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 19SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 27LADLAD@SFSFupcoming

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 27LADLAD4@SFSF12
Mar 18SFSF1@LADLAD5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+15739%
LADLAD-19266%

↘6· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
SFSFSP
T. McDonald

T. McDonald

#72 · 1-0

ERA

1.29

K

8

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/5vsSDSD7.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 KW(1-0)
VS
LADLADSP
R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

#11 · 1-3

ERA

5.97

K

26

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@STLSTL6.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(1-3)
4/25vsCHCCHC5.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 KW(1-2)
4/19@COLCOL4.2 IP · 3 ER · 2 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
SFSF3L · 6R
  1. 1

    J. Lee

    RF · #51

    L
  2. 2

    L. Arraez

    2B · #1

    L
  3. 3

    C. Schmitt

    1B · #10

    R
  4. 4

    R. Devers

    DH · #16

    L
  5. 5

    H. Ramos

    LF · #17

    R
  6. 6

    W. Adames

    SS · #2

    R
  7. 7

    M. Chapman

    3B · #26

    R
  8. 8

    H. Bader

    CF · #9

    R
  9. 9

    J. Rodriguez

    C · #79

    R
LADLAD5L · 4R
  1. 1

    S. Ohtani

    DH · #17

    L
  2. 2

    M. Betts

    SS · #50

    R
  3. 3

    F. Freeman

    1B · #5

    L
  4. 4

    K. Tucker

    RF · #23

    L
  5. 5

    W. Smith

    C · #16

    R
  6. 6

    M. Muncy

    3B · #13

    L
  7. 7

    A. Pages

    CF · #44

    R
  8. 8

    T. Hernandez

    LF · #37

    R
  9. 9

    H. Kim

    2B · #6

    L

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th
Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Recent swing: 15pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Ball 1

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. McDonald

T. McDonald

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 4 ER

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 2 ER

How it's going

LAD lead SF 2-1 (Top 5th).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 56% WP

Devers · homered to right center (401 feet).

LADBottom 3rd Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 56% WP

T. Hern · ández doubled to left.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 78% WP

Muncy · singled to right, Freeman scored, Smith to second, Tucker to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
SF010001
LAD0002—2

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

2

3

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

6

TB

8

1

HR

0

1

BB

1

5

K

2

10

LOB

8

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·SF +157/LAD -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Period scoring

SF won 1 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Muncy 1

0

Inn 5

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 270 plays

period
event
player
  1. T5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  2. T5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  3. T5

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  4. T5

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  5. T5

    J. Rodríguez grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    +3pp

  6. T5

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  7. T5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  8. T5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  9. T5

    Roki Sasaki pitches to Jesus Rodriguez

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  10. T5

    Top of the 5th inning

    SF 1·LAD 2

  11. End 4t

    End of the 4th inning

    SF 1·LAD 2

  12. B4

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  13. B4

    Kim struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    −3pp

  14. B4

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  15. B4

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  16. B4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  17. B4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  18. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  19. B4

    Trevor McDonald pitches to Hyeseong Kim

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  20. B4

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  21. B4

    T. Hernández walked.

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    +0.7pp

  22. B4

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  23. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  24. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  25. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  26. B4

    Trevor McDonald pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  27. B4

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  28. B4

    Pages grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tucker scored, Muncy out at second, Smith to third.

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    −3pp

  29. B4

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  30. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.4± 1.6low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    6.1± 3.5low
  • Robbie RaySF
    5.9± 1.8low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Jesus RodriguezSF
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.5± 3.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Jesus RodriguezSF
    1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.9± 1.5low
  • Jesus RodriguezSF
    0.6± 1.2low

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.6± 3.2low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    3.2± 2.3low
  • Tyler MahleSF
    3.0± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    65.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen