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TOP 7TH+4ARI

NYM

15-24

ARI

18-20

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

73.3%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 58.6% ARI

NYM 1 · 5 ARI

ARI +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingARIBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 86% WP
Waldschmidt · singled to center, Vargas scored, Barrosa to third.
SwingARIBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 78% WP
Vargas · safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Ibáñez.
SwingNYMTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 35% WP
Torrens · doubled to right, Benge scored.
SwingARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 79% WP
Waldschmidt · doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.03

H. Brazoban

2-0 · 1.53 ERA

E. Rodriguez

3-0 · 2.50 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

ARI no-vig %

50.4%

open 51.1% · -0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
58.6%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+40.4ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.08

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.1± 2.4low
Michael SorokaARI
6.0± 4.2low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.4± 3.1low

Hits

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.3± 1.2high
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
1.0± 1.0medium
Corbin CarrollARI
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Ildemaro VargasARI
1.8± 1.2high
Juan SotoNYM
1.8± 2.3high
Mark VientosNYM
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Mark VientosNYM
0.7± 1.4high
Adrian Del CastilloARI
0.6± 0.8high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
4.4± 3.9low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.0± 3.7low
David PetersonNYM
3.0± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

NYM

Mets

15-24

vs58.6%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

18-20

NYM 41.4%win prob58.6% ARI

ARI 1489 · NYM 1453Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10Top 7thSeriestied 1-1VegasARI -115

Updated 0s ago

NYM · top performer

Carson Benge

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

ARI · top performer

Ryan Waldschmidt

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 7th

NYM15-24

ARI18-20

NYM15-24ARI18-20

NYM

15-24

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Soto★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.513
B. Bichette★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.716
A. Slater★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.662
M. Vientos★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Semien★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Ibanez★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Taylor★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Benge★LF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.586
L. Torrens★C	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
Team	2-19	19	1	2	1	0	2	2

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
H. Brazoban★RP	1.0	0	2	2	3	0	0
T. MyersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0
D. PetersonSP	4.0	4	3	0	0	3	0
Team	6.0	5	5	2	3	5	0

ARI

18-20

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte★2B	1-3	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
SPRINT26.225
C. Carroll★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Perdomo★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del Castillo★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas★1B	0-2	2	2	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.941
N. Arenado★3B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.29
J. McCann★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Barrosa★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.688
R. Waldschmidt★CF	2-3	3	1	2	3	0	0	0
Team	5-25	25	5	5	5	0	3	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
E. Rodriguez★SP	6.0	2	1	1	2	2	0
Team	6.0	2	1	1	2	2	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

D. Peterson
71 pitches30% CSW
- SI
  39%92.9 mph11% whiff
- SL
  25%86.6 mph11% whiff
- FF
  17%92.5 mph40% whiff
- CH
  10%86.7 mph17% whiff
- CU
  8%81.3 mph50% whiff
H. Brazoban
30 pitches23% CSW
- CH
  60%90.8 mph14% whiff
- SI
  40%96.9 mph50% whiff
T. Myers
12 pitches42% CSW
- FF
  67%92.6 mph60% whiff
- FS
  25%77.2 mph0% whiff
- FC
  8%88.4 mph— whiff

ARI

E. Rodriguez
63 pitches19% CSW
- CH
  35%86.7 mph17% whiff
- FF
  30%91.8 mph0% whiff
- FC
  22%89.5 mph22% whiff
- CU
  8%79.1 mph0% whiff
- SI
  5%91.6 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 9

NYM3@

ARI1

May 9

NYM1@

ARI2

May 10

NYM@

ARItoday

Season series

ARI leads series 3-2

Apr 7

ARI3@

NYM4

Apr 8

ARI7@

NYM2

Apr 9

ARI7@

NYM1

May 9

NYM3@

ARI1

May 9

NYM1@

ARI2

May 10

NYM@

ARItoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYM-10551%

ARI-11553%

3· 16m

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

NYMRP

H. Brazoban

#43 · 2-0

ERA

1.53

—

Last 3 starts

5/7@

COL1.0 IP · 1 ER · 1 K-

5/4@

COL1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-

5/3@

LAA1.1 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-

ARISP

E. Rodriguez

#57 · 3-0

ERA

2.50

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vs

PIT7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(3-0)

4/29@

MIL4.2 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/23vs

CHW5.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KW(2-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

NYM2L · 7R

1
J. Soto
DH · #22
L
2
B. Bichette
SS · #19
R
3
A. Slater
LF · #40
R
4
M. Vientos
1B · #27
R
5
M. Semien
2B · #10
R
6
A. Ibanez
3B · #77
R
7
T. Taylor
CF · #28
R
8
C. Benge
RF · #3
L
9
L. Torrens
C · #13
R

ARI2L · 3R · 4S

1
K. Marte
2B · #4
B
2
C. Carroll
RF · #7
L
3
G. Perdomo
SS · #2
B
4
A. Del Castillo
DH · #25
L
5
I. Vargas
1B · #6
B
6
N. Arenado
3B · #28
R
7
J. McCann
C · #8
R
8
J. Barrosa
CF · #1
B
9
R. Waldschmidt
LF · #15
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 7th

Game flowNYM ↔ ARI

Recent swing: 15pp · Top 6th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Strike 1 Looking

NYM

C. Benge

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

D. Peterson

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H

ARI

R. Waldschmidt

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

E. Rodriguez

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 1 ER

How it's going

ARI lead NYM 5-1 (Top 7th). Waldschmidt's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

ARI vs NYM

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2

+18pp→ 79% WP

Waldschmidt · doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.

NYMTop 6th Inning · 1-2

+15pp→ 35% WP

Torrens · doubled to right, Benge scored.

ARIBottom 6th Inning · 1-3

+12pp→ 86% WP

Waldschmidt · singled to center, Vargas scored, Barrosa to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
ARI	0	2	0	0	0	3	—	5

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · ARI won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Waldschmidt 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Torrens 1

Marte 2

Inn 7

NYM

ARI

Play-by-play · 359 plays

period

event

player

T7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
NYM 1·ARI 5
T7
Eduardo Rodriguez pitches to Mark Vientos
·
NYM 1·ARI 5
T7
Top of the 7th inning
NYM 1·ARI 5
End 6t
End of the 6th inning
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
Carroll struck out swinging.
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
−0.7pp
B6
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
David Peterson pitches to Corbin Carroll
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
Marte tripled to right, Barrosa scored and Waldschmidt scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
+10pp
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 3
B6
David Peterson pitches to Ketel Marte
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 5
B6
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 3
B6
Waldschmidt singled to center, Vargas scored, Barrosa to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 3
+12pp
B6
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 3
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
David Peterson pitches to Ryan Waldschmidt
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 3
B6
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
Barrosa singled to left, Vargas to second.
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
+2pp
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
David Peterson pitches to Jorge Barrosa
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
B6
McCann flied out to right.
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2
−3pp
B6
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 1·ARI 2

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYM -105/ARI -115

DraftKings · via ESPN