MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 4TH+5MIN

MIN

15-20

WSH

16-19

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

71.0%

MIN wins · current

Pre-game: 54.5% WSH

MIN 6 · 1 WSH

MIN +5

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.67

T. Bradley

3-1 · 2.85 ERA

C. Cavalli

1-1 · 3.82 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

50.4%

open 51.7% · -1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-53.5ppvs pre-game · MIN favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.30

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.3± 3.7low
Jake IrvinWSH
5.6± 2.5low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.4± 4.5low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.2± 0.9high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.1± 1.2high
Austin MartinMIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.7± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.8± 2.2high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Ryan JeffersMIN
0.9± 1.4high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.0high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
3.7± 3.5low
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.6± 2.3low
Miles MikolasWSH
3.6± 4.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

MIN

Twins

15-20

vs55%WSH

WSH★

Nationals

16-19

MIN 45%win prob55% WSH

WSH 1458 · MIN 1451Box score→

MLBTue, May 5Top 4thVegasMIN -118

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

MIN · WSH

MIN

15-20

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	OPS
B. Buxton★CF	0-3	0	0	0.000
T. Larnach★LF	2-3	0	2	1.333
R. Jeffers★C	0-2	0	0	0.000
J. Bell★1B	0-2	0	0	0.000
A. Martin★LF	1-2	1	0	1.000
K. Clemens★1B	0-0	2	0	—
L. Keaschall★2B	1-1	2	0	2.000
B. Lee★SS	1-2	1	2	1.000
R. Lewis★3B	0-1	0	1	0.000
Team	5-16	6	5	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
T. Bradley★SP	3.0	2	1	4
Team	3.0	2	1	4

WSH

16-19

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	OPS
J. Wood★RF	0-2	0	0	0.000
D. Lile★LF	0-1	1	0	0.500
C. Mead★1B	1-2	0	0	1.000
C. Abrams★SS	0-2	0	1	0.000
J. Young★CF	0-2	0	0	0.000
J. Vivas★3B	0-1	0	0	0.000
N. Nunez★2B	0-0	0	0	—
J. Tena★2B	1-1	0	0	2.000
K. Ruiz★C	0-1	0	0	0.000
Team	2-12	1	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
C. Cavalli★SP	3.2	5	3	1
Team	3.2	5	3	1

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Season series

May 5

MIN@

WSHtoday

May 6

MIN@

WSHupcoming

May 7

MIN@

WSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-11854%

WSH-10250%

3· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

MINSP

T. Bradley

#26 · 3-1

ERA

2.85

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

SEA7.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K-

4/24@

TB6.1 IP · 6 ER · 3 KL(3-1)

4/18vs

CIN6.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-

WSHSP

C. Cavalli

#24 · 1-1

ERA

3.82

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@

NYM6.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 KW(1-1)

4/23vs

ATL5.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K-

4/18vs

SF4.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

MIN2L · 5R · 2S

1
B. Buxton
CF · #25
R
2
T. Larnach
LF · #9
L
3
R. Jeffers
C · #27
R
4
J. Bell
DH · #56
B
5
A. Martin
RF · #16
R
6
K. Clemens
1B · #2
L
7
L. Keaschall
2B · #15
R
8
B. Lee
SS · #22
B
9
R. Lewis
3B · #23
R

WSH5L · 2R · 2S

1
J. Wood
RF · #29
L
2
D. Lile
LF · #4
L
3
C. Mead
1B · #45
R
4
C. Abrams
SS · #5
L
5
J. Young
CF · #30
R
6
J. Vivas
3B · #84
L
7
N. Nunez
2B · #26
B
8
J. Tena
DH · #8
L
9
K. Ruiz
C · #20
B

Live · top performers so far

Top 4th

Game flowMIN ↔ WSH

Recent swing: 11pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Strike 2 Foul

MIN

L. Keaschall

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Bradley

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 2 ER

WSH

J. Tena

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 6 ER

How it's going

MIN lead WSH 6-1 (Top 4th). Lee's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

WSH vs MIN

Score progression

1 lead change

MIN6

WSH1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MINTop 2nd Inning · 2-1

+21pp→ 56% WP

Lee · doubled to right, Keaschall scored and Clemens scored.

MINTop 4th Inning · 3-1

+9pp→ 84% WP

Lee · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Martin scored on fielding error by pitcher Cavalli, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.

MINTop 4th Inning · 6-1

+11pp→ 92% WP

Larnach · doubled to center, Keaschall scored and Lee scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	R
MIN	0	2	0	4	6
WSH	1	0	0	—	1

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · WSH won 1

Inn 1

Abrams 1

Inn 2

Lee 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Larnach 2

MIN

WSH

Game flow · key plays

T4
Larnach doubled to center, Keaschall scored and Lee scored.
MIN 6·WSH 1
−11pp
T4
Lee grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Martin scored on fielding error by pitcher Cavalli, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.
MIN 3·WSH 1
−9pp
T4
Keaschall walked, Clemens to second, Martin to third.
MIN 2·WSH 1
−7pp
T2
Lee doubled to right, Keaschall scored and Clemens scored.
MIN 2·WSH 1
−21pp
B1
Abrams grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lile scored, Mead third.
MIN 0·WSH 1
+6pp
B1
Mead doubled to left, Lile to third.
MIN 0·WSH 0
+8pp

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 9.5·MIN -118/WSH -102

DraftKings · via ESPN