Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+8MIN

MIN

16-20

113

WSH

16-20

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

17,844 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

50.4%

open 51.7% · -1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.7%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.30

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.8± 2.3medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.4± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.2± 1.4high
Nasim NunezWSH
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.0± 2.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.2high
Josh BellMIN
0.8± 0.9high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

WSH

.731

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.322

OBP

.319

.321

4.86

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.32

4.75

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.59

1.39

WHIP

1.31

1.38

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 11 · WSH 3 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	2	0	4	0	0	1	3	1	11
WSH	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.250	6	1	1	3	1	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.288	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.286	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.218	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.325	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.200	2	3	0	0	0	2	0
L. Keaschall2B	.227	2	2	1	0	0	3	0
B. LeeSS	.270	5	2	3	3	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.169	3	1	0	1	0	0	2
Team		37	11	10	10	1	6	4

Player

.250

.288

.286

.218

.325

.200

.227

.270

.169

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	6.0	4	2	2	2	8	96
E. OrzeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	16
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19
L. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	10	144

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.232	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. LileLF	.248	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
C. Mead1B	.227	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.287	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. YoungCF	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Nunez2B	.216	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. TenaDH	.288	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
K. RuizC	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		33	3	6	3	0	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	4.0	5	6	3	3	2	76
P. SchultzRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	25
A. GranilloRP	2.0	4	4	4	0	0	33
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	34
Team	9.0	10	11	8	6	4	168

Team

MIN

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

WSH vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.