MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL

MIL

18-16

STL

21-14

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

50.4%

open 51.7% · -1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
50.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts