• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1MIA
COL

COL

0-1

1
2
MIA

MIA

1-0

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
32,459 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL67.6%59.6%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMJun 2, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

COL 1 · MIA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +19pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0001000001
MIA020000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Mar 27·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0/VegasMIA -199

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Colorado Rockies, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (MIA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. DoyleCOL−22.3pp
  2. 2H. GoodmanCOL−15.3pp
  3. 3O. CaissieMIA+14.9pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Javier Sanoja

Javier Sanoja

3B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL0-1
1
2
MIA1-0
COL0-1·MIA1-0
COL

COL

0-1

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-330100013.8
SPRINT29.698
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
2-4402000015.3
SPRINT27.148
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-441000024.3
SPRINT27.969
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-440100014.5
SPRINT27.867
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-330100101.9
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
1-330110102.9
SPRINT28.175
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-4400000222.3
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-220000013.8
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-330100005.7
R. RitterR. Ritter2B
0-110000016.2
B. FulfordB. FulfordC
0-110000014.3
Team7-3232171029—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. FreelandK. Freeland★SP
4.152222010.0
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.12000100.5
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.10000000.0
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
2.01000106.6
Team8.0822240—
MIA

MIA

1-0

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-330000015.8
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-330000105.6
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-440100005.7
SPRINT27.765
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-330000117.0
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
2-330200006.7
SPRINT2872
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-440000004.6
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-4411000010.1
SPRINT2872
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-4411100214.9
SPRINT28.586
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
3-330310004.1
SPRINT28.381
G. ConineG. ConineLF
0-110000000.0
Team8-3232282024—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
7.041025014.4
A. NardiA. NardiRP
0.21000203.3
A. BenderA. BenderRP
0.11000105.4
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.010001013.3
Team9.0710290—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • K. Freeland
    81 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      27%·92.4 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      27%·83.2 mph·42% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • ST
      41%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Herget
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      30%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·78.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      50%·75.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      50%·89.2 mph·100% whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    73 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      22%·91.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.1 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      18%·97.6 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      67%·84.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      58%·90.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      55%·82.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      45%·94.6 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

Mar 27COLCOL1@MIAMIA2today
Mar 28COLCOL3@MIAMIA4
Mar 29COLCOL3@MIAMIA4

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Mar 27COLCOL1@MIAMIA2today
Mar 28COLCOL3@MIAMIA4
Mar 29COLCOL3@MIAMIA4
Jun 30MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 1MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 2MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming
Jul 2MIAMIA@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+16338%
MIAMIA-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 8th Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
J. Sanoja

J. Sanoja

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat COL 2-1.

Win probability

MIA vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 74% WP

Caissie · doubled to center, Edwards scored.

COLTop 4th Inning · 1-2
+9pp→ 33% WP

Beck · reached on infield single to shortstop, Castro scored, Rumfield to second, Tovar to third.

MIATop 8th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 89% WP

Castro · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0001000001
MIA02000000—2

Period scoring

COL won 1 · MIA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Caissie 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Beck 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

COL
MIA

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  2. T9

    Doyle lined out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  5. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Brenton Doyle

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  6. T9

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  7. T9

    Beck popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

    +8pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  11. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Jordan Beck

    · ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  12. T9

    Sullivan ran for Rumfield

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  13. T9

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  14. T9

    Rumfield singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

    −8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  17. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  18. T9

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  19. T9

    Tovar struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

    +7pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  25. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ezequiel Tovar

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  26. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Bender

    ·

    COL 1·MIA 2

  27. T9

    Sanoja in left field.

    COL 1·MIA 2

  28. T9

    Pauley at third base.

    COL 1·MIA 2

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 1·MIA 2

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 1·MIA 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

1

Runs

2

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

7

TB

11

0

HR

0

2

BB

2

9

K

4

11

LOB

17

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8·COL +163/MIA -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    4.1± 2.0low
  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.9± 2.7low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    69.0%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    73.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    69.1%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 93
    271
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 93
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 90
    273
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 90
    271
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs