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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3HOU
TEX

TEX

21-24

1
4
HOU

HOU

19-28

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
32,315 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

HOU no-vig %

43.6%

open 43.7%

+2.0-0.5HOU SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL47.7%39.6%HOU NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

TEX 1 · HOU 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000001001
HOU200200004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -155

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Texas Rangers, 4–1.

HOU +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen

DH

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX21-24
1
4
HOU19-28
TEX21-24·HOU19-28
TEX

TEX

21-24

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33011021
SPRINT25.716
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-55000002
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000011
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-11000020
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-55010001
SPRINT28.891
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-33110011
SPRINT2744
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-11000020
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
1-44010002
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
1-22010000
SPRINT27.662
Team6-3232161089
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
6.0544044
C. QuantrillC. QuantrillRP
2.0000110
Team8.0544154
HOU

HOU

19-28

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44111101
SPRINT27.867
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000000
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-33111100
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-33111101
SPRINT25.920
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
0-33000001
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33000000
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
1-33111101
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
1-33010001
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-22000010
Team5-2828454415
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
5.0200470
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0000020
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.1311000
B. KingB. KingRP
0.2000100
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
0.2000200
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.1100100
Team9.0611890

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    94 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      49%·91.0 mph·48% whiff
    • FF
      37%·96.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.7 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Quantrill
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      40%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.9 mph·— whiff

HOU

  • K. Teng
    76 pitches·39% CSW
    • ST
      32%·84.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      63%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    16 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      81%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Okert
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • SL
      67%·80.8 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. King
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·89.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4today
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0

Season series

HOU leads series 2-0

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4today
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0
May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 12HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 2TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

TEXTEX-15561%
HOUHOU+12844%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TEXTEX
A. McCutchen

A. McCutchen

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

K. Teng

K. Teng

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 4-1.

Win probability

HOU vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 67% WP

Altuve · homered to left (358 feet).

HOUBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+13pp→ 87% WP

Walker · homered to left center (422 feet).

HOUTop 7th Inning · 1-4
+9pp→ 95% WP

McCutchen · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000001001
HOU20020000—4

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · HOU won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Pederson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TEX
HOU

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  2. T9

    Duran grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McCutchen out at second.

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  5. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  7. T9

    McCutchen reached on infield single to pitcher, Pederson to second.

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

    −2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  11. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  12. T9

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  13. T9

    Jung lined out to center.

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  18. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  19. T9

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  20. T9

    Nimmo lined out to center.

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

    +4pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  24. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  25. T9

    ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  26. T9BB

    Christian Vázquez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Joc Pederson walks.

    · ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

    −4pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 1·HOU 4

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

1

Runs

4

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

6

TB

17

0

HR

4

8

BB

1

9

K

5

24

LOB

2

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·TEX -155/HOU +128

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 97
    123
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 96
    130
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 94
    123
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    143
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 93
    138
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 93
    53
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

HOU vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    44.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.4%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.5%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.