Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+3HOU

HOU

13-21

BOS

13-20

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,158 attended

Line movement

96 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BOS no-vig %

55.9%

open 56.3% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.1%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.2%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.6low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.6± 2.6low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Marcelo MayerBOS
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.2± 2.5medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.6low
Jake BennettBOS
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

BOS

.728

OPS

◀

.719

.691

.317

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.46

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.87

4.84

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.82

1.41

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 6 · BOS 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	6
BOS	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CorreaSS	.296	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.331	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. Paredes3B	.264	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Walker1B	.309	4	2	3	2	1	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.248	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.238	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.231	3	1	2	3	1	1	1
C. SmithRF	.212	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. HarrisLF	.233	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	6	12	6	2	4	7

Player

.296

.331

.264

.309

.248

.238

.231

.212

.233

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ArrighettiSP	5.0	5	1	1	5	4	87
E. De Los SantosRP	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	18
B. SousaRP	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	13
K. TengRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	23
B. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	8	3	3	7	7	147

Player

5.0

1.2

0.0

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.176	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
W. Contreras1B	.263	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
R. AnthonyLF	.233	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
W. AbreuRF	.306	3	0	2	1	0	2	0
T. StorySS	.208	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.244	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. WongC	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.171	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. MonasterioSS	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.265	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.229	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	8	3	0	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EarlySP	4.0	6	5	5	3	3	77
R. WatsonRP	3.0	3	1	1	1	4	39
T. SamaniegoRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	0	26
Team	9.0	12	6	6	4	7	142

Team

HOU

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.