Matchup orbital

HOU

HOU

HOU

12-21

Sat, 4:10 PM EDT

Win prob

41/59

AWAY · HOME

BOS

BOS

BOS

13-19

Place your bet

-141Bet BOS ML↗-141Bet BOS ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Spencer Arrighetti

Spencer Arrighetti

SP · #41

3-0

W-L

2.00

ERA

1.11

WHIP

21

K

18.0

IP

Last 3 starts

vsNYYW(3-0)7.0 IP1 ER8 K
@CLEW(2-0)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsCOLW(1-0)6.0 IP1 ER10 K

Home starter

Connelly Early

Connelly Early

SP · #71

2-1

W-L

2.84

ERA

1.20

WHIP

28

K

31.2

IP

Last 3 starts

@BALW(2-1)6.2 IP2 ER4 K
vsNYYL(1-1)5.1 IP3 ER4 K
@MINW(1-0)6.0 IP1 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money+117 / -141

Model edge

Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesBOS leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take BOS on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-141Bet BOS ML↗-141Bet BOS ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗
O/U 9Bet the total↗O/U 9Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

HOU

  1. 1.C. CorreaSS
  2. 2.Y. AlvarezDH
  3. 3.I. Paredes3B
  4. 4.C. Walker1B
  5. 5.J. Altuve2B
  6. 6.Y. DiazC
  7. 7.B. MatthewsCF
  8. 8.C. SmithRF
  9. 9.D. HarrisLF

BOS

  1. 1.J. DuranDH
  2. 2.W. Contreras1B
  3. 3.R. AnthonyLF
  4. 4.W. AbreuRF
  5. 5.T. StorySS
  6. 6.M. Mayer2B
  7. 7.C. RafaelaCF
  8. 8.C. WongC
  9. 9.C. Durbin3B
Model vs marketLean
DraftKings · snapped 10m ago
+3.3ppon BOSBOS
HOUHOUWin prob axisBOSBOS
Market 56%
Model 59%
0%50%100%
ModelBOS 59%Pre-game prob
MarketBOS 56%No-vig · 4.6% hold
Edge+3.3ppModel finds value
HOUHOU +117/BOSBOS -141
-141Bet BOS ML↗-141Bet BOS ML↗
The One modelEdge
Sat, May 2
HOU

HOU

Astros

12-21

vs59%BOS

BOS★

Red Sox

13-19

BOS
HOU 41%win prob59% BOS
BOS 1507 · HOU 1466Box score→
← Back to MLB
MLBGame · Sat, May 25/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
HOU

HOU12-21

HOU

@

13-19BOS

BOS

BOS
SeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -141

Preview · MLB

ouston Astros visit Boston Red Sox Saturday at 5/2 - 4:10 PM EDT.

Vegas opened BOS as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 9.0. BOS's moneyline implies a 59% break-even, HOU the inverse. BOS is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the BOS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 9.0 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 10 over 6.2hjust now
5/2 - 4:10 PM EDTScheduled
Updated 0s ago
HOU
HOU12-210
5/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
BOS
BOS13-190

Current series

BOS leads series 1-0

May 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS3
May 2HOUHOU@BOSBOStoday
May 3HOUHOU@BOSBOSupcoming

Season series

HOU leads series 3-1

Mar 31BOSBOS1@HOUHOU8
Apr 1BOSBOS2@HOUHOU9
Apr 1BOSBOS4@HOUHOU6
May 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS3
May 2HOUHOU@BOSBOStoday
May 3HOUHOU@BOSBOSupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+11746%
BOSBOS-14159%

10· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
HOUHOUSP
S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

#41 · 3-0

ERA

2.00

K

21

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26vsNYYNYY7.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 KW(3-0)
4/20@CLECLE5.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(2-0)
4/16vsCOLCOL6.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 KW(1-0)
BOSBOSSP
C. Early

C. Early

#71 · 2-1

ERA

2.84

K

28

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26@BALBAL6.2 IP · 2 ER · 4 KW(2-1)
4/21vsNYYNYY5.1 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(1-1)
4/15@MINMIN6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(1-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
HOUHOU2L · 7R
  1. 1

    C. Correa

    SS

    R
  2. 2

    Y. Alvarez

    DH

    L
  3. 3

    I. Paredes

    3B

    R
  4. 4

    C. Walker

    1B

    R
  5. 5

    J. Altuve

    2B

    R
  6. 6

    Y. Diaz

    C

    R
  7. 7

    B. Matthews

    CF

    R
  8. 8

    C. Smith

    RF

    R
  9. 9

    D. Harris

    LF

    L
BOSBOS4L · 5R
  1. 1

    J. Duran

    DH

    L
  2. 2

    W. Contreras

    1B

    R
  3. 3

    R. Anthony

    LF

    L
  4. 4

    W. Abreu

    RF

    L
  5. 5

    T. Story

    SS

    R
  6. 6

    M. Mayer

    2B

    L
  7. 7

    C. Rafaela

    CF

    R
  8. 8

    C. Wong

    C

    R
  9. 9

    C. Durbin

    3B

    R

Scouting report

HOU @ BOS

5/2 - 4:10 PM EDT

Rest going in

HOUB2B

0 days

last game May 1

BOSB2B

0 days

last game May 1

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

BOS -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

9.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

BOS -141

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

HOUmetricBOS

12-21

Record

13-19

#14

Conf rank

#13

-0.9

Pt diff

-0.5

L1

Streak

W1

4-6

Last 10

4-6

Bullpen used yesterday

HOU

2.0 bullpen IP

  • B. Sousa1.0 IP12 P
  • B. King1.0 IP14 P

L 3-1 · May 1

BOS

4.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • Z. Kelly1.1 IP19 P
  • D. Coulombe0.2 IP8 P
  • G. Whitlock1.0 IP16 P
  • A. Chapman1.0 IP16 P

W 3-1 · May 1

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

303

Hits

250

11

Errors

16

169

Runs

126

Player box score

HOU

HOU

12-21

0
C. Correa

C. Correa★

SS

OPS

0.658

H-AB

32-111

RBI

15

HR

3

Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez★

LF

OPS

0.976

H-AB

42-123

RBI

27

HR

12

I. Paredes

I. Paredes★

3B

OPS

0.618

H-AB

27-102

RBI

15

HR

3

C. Walker

C. Walker★

1B

OPS

0.765

H-AB

35-119

RBI

24

HR

7

J. Altuve

J. Altuve★

2B

OPS

0.578

H-AB

29-116

RBI

8

HR

3

Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz★

C

OPS

0.583

H-AB

25-96

RBI

14

HR

2

B. Matthews

B. Matthews★

LF

OPS

0.516

H-AB

13-62

RBI

8

HR

2

C. Smith

C. Smith★

RF

OPS

0.532

H-AB

23-109

RBI

15

HR

4

D. Harris

D. Harris★

LF

OPS

0.421

H-AB

8-38

RBI

5

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

--

HR

--

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti★

SP

IP

--.--

H

--

ER

--

K

--

Team total

IP

--.--

H

--

ER

--

K

--

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +117/BOS -141

DraftKings · via ESPN