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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATH
ATH

ATH

5-7

1
0
NYY

NYY

8-4

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
40,392 attended

Line movement

20 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL67.6%59.6%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 65.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 1 · NYY 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000001001
NYY0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 2, 26sim 96
    290
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 92
    142
    10(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    202
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 92
    202
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 92
    292
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 9·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1/VegasNYY -199

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into New York Yankees and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH5-7
1
0
NYY8-4
ATH5-7·NYY8-4
ATH

ATH

5-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-11000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-33000000
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.969
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44011002
SPRINT26.735
A. WynnsA. Wynns★C
0-33000001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-33010000
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
0-33000000
L. ButlerL. ButlerRF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.530
J. McNeilJ. McNeil2B
0-11000000
Team8-3333181008
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
7.0100260
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0000110
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000010
Team9.0100380
NYY

NYY

8-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-22000020
SPRINT28.278
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000000
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-22000010
SPRINT23.81
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000003
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000001
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-22000000
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.2B
0-11000000
T. GrishamT. GrishamCF
0-11000001
Team1-2929010038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. WeathersR. Weathers★SP
8.0711070
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
1.0100010
Team9.0811080

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Springs
    93 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.2 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      31%·82.9 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      20%·78.9 mph·45% whiff
    • ST
      8%·75.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      1%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      29%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harris
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      21%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.5 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • R. Weathers
    100 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      30%·93.8 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      26%·81.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.1 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      1%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      42%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      16%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

1

1

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Apr 7ATHATH3@NYYNYY5
Apr 8ATHATH3@NYYNYY2
Apr 9ATHATH1@NYYNYY0today

Season series

ATH leads series 2-1

Apr 7ATHATH3@NYYNYY5
Apr 8ATHATH3@NYYNYY2
Apr 9ATHATH1@NYYNYY0today
May 30NYYNYY8@ATHATH2
May 31NYYNYY@ATHATHupcoming
May 31NYYNYY@ATHATHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+16338%
NYYNYY-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 7th Inning

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
A. Rosario

A. Rosario

3B

Batter of the game

0-for-2 · 0.500 OPS

R. Weathers

R. Weathers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 7 H

How it ended

ATH beat NYY 1-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 7th Inning · 0-0
+15pp→ 55% WP

Muncy · tripled to right.

ATHBottom 7th Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 59% WP

Grichuk · struck out swinging.

ATHBottom 9th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 83% WP

Bellinger · fouled out to catcher.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000001001
NYY0000000000

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · NYY won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Soderstrom 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATH
NYY

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  3. B9

    Rice struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  9. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Ben Rice

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  10. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  11. B9

    Chisholm Jr. flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

    −10pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  13. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  14. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  15. B9

    Bellinger fouled out to catcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

    −11pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  24. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  25. B9

    Harris relieved Sterner

    ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  26. B9

    Hernaiz at third base.

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  27. B9

    McNeil at second base.

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·NYY 0

  30. T9

    · ·

    ATH 1·NYY 0

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

0

8

Hits

1

1

Errors

0

11

TB

1

0

HR

0

0

BB

3

8

K

8

14

LOB

8

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8·ATH +163/NYY -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.7± 2.2low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    63.2%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.