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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATL
ATL

ATL

35-16

9
3
MIA

MIA

22-29

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
8,834 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

43.6%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL47.7%39.6%MIA NO-VIG %May 20, 5 PMMay 21, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 9 · MIA 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL2100210219
MIA0011001003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.1pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

MIA

★ best
+198DraftKings

edge +7.1pp · implied 31.5%

BookATLMIABest edge
DraftKings-269+198★+7.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 21·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-1/VegasATL -137

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers

LF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL35-16
9
3
MIA22-29
ATL35-16·MIA22-29
ATL

ATL

35-16

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-33122000
SPRINT26.838
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-55223201
SPRINT27.148
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-55000001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44110001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
2-44220000
SPRINT25.716
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000003
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
3-33232100
SPRINT2744
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33110011
C. TrompC. Tromp★C
1-33010001
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11000001
M. DubonM. DubonSS
1-11012000
SPRINT26.428
Team13-36369139319
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
6.1433293
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.2100010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000010
D. DoddD. DoddRP
1.0100020
Team9.06332133
MIA

MIA

22-29

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000002
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-44222202
SPRINT2622
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000001
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-33010012
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-22111101
SPRINT28.586
J. MackJ. Mack★C
0-11000010
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000001
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.483
E. RuizE. RuizRF
0-11000001
Team6-32323633213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.0966032
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
2.0322140
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0111021
Team9.01399193

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    100 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.8 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.2 mph·46% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.9 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.9 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FC
      62%·87.7 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      45%·90.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      27%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SL
      57%·82.7 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      29%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.3 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    94 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      27%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.6 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.2 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    50 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      40%·79.3 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      40%·79.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·94.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

6

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-1

May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3today

Season series

ATL leads series 5-2

Apr 13MIAMIA10@ATLATL4
Apr 14MIAMIA5@ATLATL6
Apr 15MIAMIA3@ATLATL6
May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3today
Aug 4MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 5MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 6MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 25ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 26ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 27ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-13758%
MIAMIA+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning

ATLATL
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
K. Stowers

K. Stowers

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 9 H

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 9-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 71% WP

Harris II · homered to center (418 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+11pp→ 35% WP

Stowers · homered to right center (371 feet).

ATLTop 5th Inning · 5-2
+11pp→ 87% WP

Acu · ña Jr. singled to center, Yastrzemski scored and Kim scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL2100210219
MIA0011001003

Period scoring

ATL won 6 · MIA won 3

2
0

Inn 1

II 2

1
0

Inn 2

Yastrzemski 1

0
1

Inn 3

Caissie 1

0
1

Inn 4

Stowers 1

2
0

Inn 5

Acu 2

1
0

Inn 6

Yastrzemski 1

0
1

Inn 7

Stowers 1

2
0

Inn 8

Dub 2

1
0

Inn 9

II 1

ATL
MIA

Play-by-play · 575 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  3. B9

    Hernández struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  8. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  9. B9

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  10. B9

    Morel reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  12. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Christopher Morel

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  13. B9

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  14. B9

    Marsee grounded out to first.

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  19. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  20. B9

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  21. B9

    Stowers struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  27. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Kyle Stowers

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  28. B9

    Dodd relieved Suarez

    ·

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 9·MIA 3

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 9·MIA 3

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

9

Runs

3

13

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

24

TB

15

3

HR

3

1

BB

2

9

K

13

11

LOB

8

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATL -137/MIA +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 18, 26sim 96
    150
    28(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 95
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    158
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 94
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 94
    85
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 93
    108
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    40.4%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.9%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.9%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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