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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12MIA
ATL

ATL

32-16

0
12
MIA

MIA

22-26

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
8,672 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

50.4%

open 48.9% · +1.5

+2.0-0.5MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL54.4%44.9%MIA NO-VIG %May 17, 4 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

ATL 0 · MIA 12 (by 12)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000000000
MIA0105600012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.7pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best
+155DraftKings

edge +24.7pp · implied 36.8%

MIA

no live price

BookATLMIABest edge
DraftKings+155★-206+24.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-1/VegasMIA -114

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Atlanta Braves, 12–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL32-16
0
12
MIA22-26
ATL32-16·MIA22-26
ATL

ATL

32-16

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-22010010
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44000000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000002
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.428
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
0-33000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-22000011
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-22000011
S. LeonS. LeonC
0-11000001
J. MateoJ. MateoSS
0-11000001
SPRINT3099
J. AzocarJ. AzocarRF
0-11000000
Team4-3030040039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RitchieJ. Ritchie★SP
4.0565140
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.0366512
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
1.0000120
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000010
J. MateoJ. MateoSS
1.0100000
SPRINT3099
Team8.091211782
MIA

MIA

22-26

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44222100
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-44022000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000001
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-22210020
SPRINT2622
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-55010003
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-22300020
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-33210021
J. MackJ. Mack★C
1-33214011
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-44114101
SPRINT28.381
E. RuizE. RuizRF
0-11000000
C. MorelC. Morel1B
0-11000001
L. JimenezL. Jimenez3B
0-11000000
Team9-343412912278
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MeyerM. Meyer★SP
6.0300260
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0100120
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0000000
Team9.0400390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • J. Ritchie
    83 pitches·23% CSW
    • CU
      29%·82.9 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      22%·88.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    42 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      50%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      74%·97.5 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      67%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      25%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Mateo
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FA
      82%·76.1 mph·0% whiff
    • EP
      18%·62.2 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • M. Meyer
    97 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.3 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      26%·89.1 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      21%·90.0 mph·42% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      74%·92.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.7 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      7%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      33%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      22%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

0

Runs

12

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-1

May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12today
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13MIAMIA10@ATLATL4
Apr 14MIAMIA5@ATLATL6
Apr 15MIAMIA3@ATLATL6
May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12today
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3
Aug 4MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 5MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 6MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 25ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 26ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 27ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-10551%
MIAMIA-11453%

↘4· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

J. Ritchie

J. Ritchie

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Meyer

M. Meyer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat ATL 12-0.

Win probability

MIA vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 91% WP

Mack · singled to right, Marsee scored and Stowers scored, Norby to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000000000
MIA01056000—12

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · MIA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Mack 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
5

Inn 4

Mack 2

0
6

Inn 5

Sanoja 4

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATL
MIA

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  2. T9

    Dubón flied out to right.

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  10. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  11. T9

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  12. T9

    Azócar flied out to right.

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  18. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Jose Azocar

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  19. T9

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  20. T9

    Riley flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  24. T9

    Lake Bachar pitches to Austin Riley

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  25. T9

    Bachar relieved Faucher

    ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  28. B8

    · ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  29. B8

    Norby flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 0·MIA 12

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

0

Runs

12

4

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

4

TB

16

0

HR

2

3

BB

7

9

K

8

9

LOB

17

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATL -105/MIA -114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    38.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.1%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 98
    158
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 96
    159
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    159
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 95
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 94
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    198
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872