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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4ATL
ATL

ATL

33-16

8
4
MIA

MIA

22-27

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
7,521 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

MIA no-vig %

44.9%

open 46.8% · -1.9

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL50.8%40.9%MIA NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 8 · MIA 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL2000110318
MIA3010000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.0pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best
+106DraftKings

edge +16.0pp · implied 45.5%

MIA

no live price

BookATLMIABest edge
DraftKings+106★-139+16.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 18, 26sim 98
    150
    28(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 98
    159
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    159
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    84
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 94
    1510
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 92
    157
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-1/VegasATL -143

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 8–4.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Chadwick Tromp

Chadwick Tromp

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL33-16
8
4
MIA22-27
ATL33-16·MIA22-27
ATL

ATL

33-16

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44310021
SPRINT26.838
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
3-55131000
SPRINT26.428
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-33023020
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-22001020
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
0-44100003
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-55122101
SPRINT27.148
J. AzocarJ. Azocar★RF
0-11000000
S. LeonS. Leon★C
0-33000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44111010
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-33100013
D. SmithD. SmithDH
0-11000001
C. TrompC. TrompC
1-11010000
Team10-363681081811
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
5.05442101
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
0.2000100
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.1200020
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000100
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0100010
Team9.08444131
MIA

MIA

22-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-55111101
SPRINT2872
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
3-44230010
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.483
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44010003
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
0-22101011
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
1-44012001
SPRINT2622
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000010
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-33000011
J. MackJ. Mack★C
0-44000003
L. HicksL. HicksC
1-11010000
J. MarseeJ. MarseeCF
0-11000001
Team8-35354841413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. GarrettB. Garrett★SP
3.0322320
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.1111010
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.1211031
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.1000210
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
0.2233320
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.1211020
Team9.010888111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • M. Perez
    78 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      33%·82.6 mph·47% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.8 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      21%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·77.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Lee
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      40%·83.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      71%·97.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      71%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·95.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      12%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      62%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.1 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • B. Garrett
    65 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      31%·90.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.9 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      52%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      29%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·84.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·86.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·96.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

8

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-1

May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4today
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3

Season series

ATL leads series 3-2

Apr 13MIAMIA10@ATLATL4
Apr 14MIAMIA5@ATLATL6
Apr 15MIAMIA3@ATLATL6
May 18ATLATL0@MIAMIA12
May 19ATLATL8@MIAMIA4today
May 20ATLATL9@MIAMIA1
May 21ATLATL9@MIAMIA3
Aug 4MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 5MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 6MIAMIA@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 25ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 26ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 27ATLATL@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ATLATL-14359%
MIAMIA+11846%

↗4· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 8th Inning

ATLATL
C. Tromp

C. Tromp

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.0 IP · 10 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Garrett

B. Garrett

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 8-4. Dub's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 2-3
+19pp→ 49% WP

Stowers · doubled to right, Ruiz scored and Lopez scored.

ATLTop 6th Inning · 4-4
+17pp→ 55% WP

Harris II · homered to center (421 feet).

ATLTop 8th Inning · 5-4
+24pp→ 79% WP

Dub · ón reached on infield single to first, Yastrzemski scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Kim to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL2000110318
MIA3010000004

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · MIA won 2

2
3

Inn 1

Albies 1

Stowers 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Ruiz 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Olson 1

1
0

Inn 6

II 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Olson 2

1
0

Inn 9

Kim 1

ATL
MIA

Play-by-play · 658 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  3. B9

    Marsee struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  7. B9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  8. B9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  10. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jakob Marsee

    · ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  11. B9

    Marsee hit for Morel

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  12. B9

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  13. B9

    Hicks singled to right.

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  16. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Liam Hicks

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  17. B9

    Hicks hit for Hernández

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  18. B9

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  19. B9

    Lopez grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  25. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  26. B9

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  27. B9

    Edwards flied out to left.

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

    −1pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

  30. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    ATL 8·MIA 4

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

8

Runs

4

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

16

TB

13

1

HR

1

8

BB

4

11

K

13

21

LOB

18

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8·ATL -143/MIA +118

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.10

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-126

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    37.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    33.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.2%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.