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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4LAD
LAD

LAD

31-19

4
0
SD

SD

29-20

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,888 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

SD no-vig %

39.2%

open 40.0% · -0.9

+2.0-0.5SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL44.0%35.2%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 19, 6 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 4 · SD 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD1100100014
SD0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.4pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

SD

★ best
+162DraftKings

edge +2.4pp · implied 36.5%

BookLADSDBest edge
DraftKings-198+162★+2.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 18, 26sim 95
    190
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    195
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    101
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 93
    153
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 93
    53
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 92
    160
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.85

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -198

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 4–0.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Bryce Johnson

Bryce Johnson

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
LAD31-19
4
0
SD29-20
LAD31-19·SD29-20
LAD

LAD

31-19

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44211111
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-44020010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-55020001
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-22011020
SPRINT26.123
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33110010
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44010000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-22112110
SPRINT28.381
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44010000
Team10-32324104263
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
5.0300240
SPRINT2744
E. HenriquezE. Henriquez★RP
1.0000010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000010
K. HurtK. HurtRP
1.0200010
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0000010
Team9.0500280
SD

SD

29-20

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44000002
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000001
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-11000001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT2872
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-22000011
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.354
Team5-3030050028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP
4.1633301
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.2100100
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.1100220
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
1.2211011
Team9.01044632

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

4

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

May 19LADLAD0@SDSD1
May 20LADLAD5@SDSD4
May 21LADLAD4@SDSD0today

Season series

LAD lead series 2-1

May 19LADLAD0@SDSD1
May 20LADLAD5@SDSD4
May 21LADLAD4@SDSD0today
Jun 27LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jun 28LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jun 28LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jul 3SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 4SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 5SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 5SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 23SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 24SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 25SDSD@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

LADLAD-19866%
SDSD+16238%

↗5· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 9th Inning

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

SDSD
B. Johnson

B. Johnson

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SD 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 5th Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 24% WP

Castellanos · singled to right, Johnson to third.

LADTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 89% WP

Muncy · flied out to right.

LADTop 9th Inning · 4-0
+14pp→ 99% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left center (406 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD1100100014
SD0000000000

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · SD won 0

1
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Tucker 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Hern 1

LAD
SD

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·SD 0

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  3. B9

    Bogaerts lined out to center.

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  7. B9

    Will Klein pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  8. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  9. B9

    Machado struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

    −0.5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  15. B9

    Will Klein pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  16. B9

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  17. B9

    Sheets flied out to center.

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  21. B9

    Will Klein pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  22. B9

    Klein relieved Hurt

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·SD 0

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 4·SD 0

  25. T9

    · ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  26. T9

    Freeman lined out to second.

    · ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  28. T9

    Ron Marinaccio pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  29. T9

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

  30. T9

    Betts reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    LAD 4·SD 0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

0

10

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

20

TB

5

2

HR

0

6

BB

2

3

K

8

18

LOB

13

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAD -198/SD +162

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Kyle TuckerLAD
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.