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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
NYY

NYY

3-1

1
2
SEA

SEA

3-2

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
27,291 attended

Line movement

20 snapshots

SEA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

48.5%

open 48.5%

+2.0+1.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL52.5%44.5%SEA NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

NYY 1 · SEA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000001001
SEA0100000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    105
    12(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 94
    105
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    194
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 91
    190
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 90
    80
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 90
    82
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1/VegasNYY -117

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off New York Yankees, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

SEA +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jose Caballero

Jose Caballero

SS

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cole Young

Cole Young

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY3-1
1
2
SEA3-2
NYY3-1·SEA3-2
NYY

NYY

3-1

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000001
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000001
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22000001
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-22010011
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
0-11001001
SPRINT28.278
Team6-31311610210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. WeathersR. Weathers★SP
4.1411270
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2000020
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
1.0000000
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
0.2200020
C. DovalC. DovalRP
0.1000000
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
1.1311100
Team8.19223110
SEA

SEA

3-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-44020011
SPRINT25.18
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-22000001
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000002
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000001
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-22000020
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-44000002
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.560
C. YoungC. Young★2B
3-44031000
SPRINT27.662
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000001
C. RaleighC. RaleighC
1-22011001
SPRINT25.716
Team9-35352920311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
6.0300270
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
0.1110000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2000000
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0100020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0100010
Team9.06102100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • B. Headrick
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      80%·93.6 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.5 mph·— whiff

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Mar 31NYYNYY1@SEASEA2today
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA0
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA3

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

Mar 31NYYNYY1@SEASEA2today
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA0
Apr 1NYYNYY5@SEASEA3
Aug 11SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 12SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 13SEASEA@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-11754%
SEASEA-10351%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 9th Inning

NYYNYY
J. Caballero

J. Caballero

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

R. Weathers

R. Weathers

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
C. Young

C. Young

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat NYY 2-1. Donovan's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

SEA vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Young · singled to right, Arozarena scored, Garver to third.

NYYBottom 7th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 39% WP

Raleigh · struck out swinging.

SEABottom 9th Inning · 1-1
+18pp→ 83% WP

Donovan · singled to center, Rivas to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000001001
SEA0100000012

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Young 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Rosario 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Raleigh 1

NYY
SEA

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

  2. B9

    Raleigh singled to right, Rivas scored, Donovan to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

    +18pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

  7. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  9. B9

    Donovan singled to center, Rivas to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

    +18pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  12. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Brendan Donovan

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  14. B9

    Young flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

    −7pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  18. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  19. B9

    ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  20. B9

    Rivas singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

    +8pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  24. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  25. B9

    Grichuk as designated hitter.

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

  29. T9

    Rosario struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

    +11pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 1·SEA 1

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

8

TB

10

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

10

K

11

11

LOB

22

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYY -117/SEA -103

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.5± 3.4low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.5± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175