MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TUE, 9:40 PM EDT

ATL

25-11

SEA

17-19

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.88

B. Elder

3-1 · 1.88 ERA

G. Kirby

4-2 · 3.00 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Bryce Elder

SP · #55

3-1

W-L

1.88

ERA

1.05

WHIP

43.0

Last 3 starts

vsDET-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsPHI-7.0 IP3 ER2 K

@WSHW(3-1)6.2 IP3 ER6 K

Home starter

George Kirby

SP · #68

4-2

W-L

3.00

ERA

1.13

WHIP

45.0

Last 3 starts

@MIN-5.2 IP2 ER5 K

@STLW(4-2)6.0 IP2 ER2 K

vsTEXW(3-2)5.2 IP1 ER5 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money+109 / -131

Model edge

Win prob52% / 48%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSEA leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+109Bet ATL ML↗+109Bet ATL ML↗

-131Bet SEA ML↗-131Bet SEA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SEA no-vig %

55.1%

open 57.2% · -2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketEdge

DraftKings · snapped just now

+5.8ppon

ATL

ATLWin prob axisSEA SEA

Market 54%

Model 48%

0%50%100%

ModelATL 52%Pre-game prob

MarketATL 46%No-vig · 4.6% hold

Edge+5.8ppModel finds value

ATL +109/

SEA -131

+109Bet ATL ML↗+109Bet ATL ML↗

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs ATL.

SEA is 6-4 recently; ATL is 7-3.

48.4%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA6–4+0.1
ATL7–3+1.8

Situational

SEA2d rest
ATL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; ATL has 4.

Model angle

+5.8ppon ATL

ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.5pp
▼Travel burden-1.1pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp

Players to watch

Matt OlsonATL
3.0total bases · ±1.5
Matt Olson · 3 TB · last-10 3.2 vs season 2.6.
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.7total bases · ±1.3
Ozzie Albies · 2.7 TB · last-10 3 vs season 2.2.
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.3total bases · ±2.9
Julio Rodriguez · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

SEA is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-04ATL @ SEA4–5

Line move

open -149→-136toward ATL

The market has moved 2.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+5.8

pp edge · ATL

+2.06

CLV pp · steam

1.9u · medium

on ATL

51.7%

±4.7pp band

1.85u medium — +3.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.9pp

+0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

7.4%

1.8% sized

Decimal

2.09

+3.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.8pp · ATL over SEA

▲
Venue split72% conf
ATL's venue form is 36.4pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
ATL is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
ATL grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Line steam72% conf
The market moved 2.1pp toward ATL since open.
+0.8pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
SEA has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market steamed in our direction

Player projections

SEA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

113

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.0± 3.4low
Emerson HancockSEA
6.6± 5.1low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.4± 2.2low

Hits

Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.5± 0.7high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.3± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
3.0± 1.5high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.7± 1.3high
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.9high
Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 1.3high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.4± 3.7low
Bryan WooSEA
3.0± 3.5low
Grant HolmesATL
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 5

ATL★

Braves

25-11

vs52%ATL

SEA

Mariners

17-19

ATL 52%win prob48% SEA

ATL 1551 · SEA 1516Box score→

The receipts

Why we like ATL.

ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+5.8

pp edge · ATL

+2.06

CLV pp · steam

1.9u · medium

on ATL

51.7%

±4.7pp band

1.85u medium — +3.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+5.9pp

+0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

7.4%

1.8% sized

Decimal

2.09

+3.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.8pp · ATL over SEA

▲
Venue split72% conf
ATL's venue form is 36.4pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
ATL is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
ATL grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▲
Line steam72% conf
The market moved 2.1pp toward ATL since open.
+0.8pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
SEA has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market steamed in our direction

MLBTue, May 55/5 - 9:40 PM EDTSeriesSEA leads series 1-0VegasSEA -131

Preview · MLB

tlanta Braves visit Seattle Mariners Tuesday at 5/5 - 9:40 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 9-3 in their last 12. SEA is 7-5 in their last 12.

Vegas opened SEA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 7.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 57% break-even, ATL the inverse.

For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 7.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

ATL · SEA

ATL

25-11

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR

Player	IP	H	ER	K

SEA

17-19

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR

Player	IP	H	ER	K

Current series

SEA leads series 1-0

May 5

ATL4@

SEA5

May 6

ATL@

SEAtoday

May 6

ATL@

SEAupcoming

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

May 5

ATL4@

SEA5

May 6

ATL@

SEAtoday

May 6

ATL@

SEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+10948%

SEA-13157%

13· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

ATLSP

B. Elder

#55 · 3-1

ERA

1.88

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vs

DET6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K-

4/25vs

PHI7.0 IP · 3 ER · 2 K-

4/20@

WSH6.2 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(3-1)

SEASP

G. Kirby

#68 · 4-2

ERA

3.00

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@

MIN5.2 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-

4/25@

STL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 2 KW(4-2)

4/18vs

TEX5.2 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(3-2)

Scouting report

ATL @ SEA

5/5 - 9:40 PM EDT

Rest going in

ATLStandard

1 day

last game May 4

SEAStandard

1 day

last game May 4

Model edge vs market

Pass · split signal

Spread

Market

SEA -1.5

Model

ATL -12.9

Edge

split

Total

Market

7.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SEA -131

Model

ATL

Edge

fading market

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

ATLmetricSEA

25-11

Record

17-19

Conf rank

+2.2

Pt diff

+0.1

Streak

7-3

Last 10

6-4

67.8

Power score

54.9

Power rank

#10

Bullpen used yesterday

ATL

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

T. Kinley1.0 IP23 P
A. Bummer0.2 IP14 P
C. Carrasco1.1 IP19 P

L 5-4 · May 4

SEA

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

J. Ferrer1.1 IP16 P
E. Bazardo0.2 IP11 P
A. Munoz1.0 IP14 P

W 5-4 · May 4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

343

Hits

273

Errors

209

Runs

148

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7.5·ATL +109/SEA -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs ATL.

113

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.0± 3.4low
Emerson HancockSEA
6.6± 5.1low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.4± 2.2low

Hits

Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.5± 0.7high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.3± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
3.0± 1.5high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.7± 1.3high
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.9high
Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 1.3high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.4± 3.7low
Bryan WooSEA
3.0± 3.5low
Grant HolmesATL
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

47.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs ATL.

SEA is 6-4 recently; ATL is 7-3.

48.4%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA6–4+0.1
ATL7–3+1.8

Situational

SEA2d rest
ATL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SEA has 0 straight road games; ATL has 4.

Model angle

+5.8ppon ATL

ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

▲Venue split+1.5pp
▼Travel burden-1.1pp
▲Model confidence+0.9pp

Players to watch

Matt OlsonATL
3.0total bases · ±1.5
Matt Olson · 3 TB · last-10 3.2 vs season 2.6.
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.7total bases · ±1.3
Ozzie Albies · 2.7 TB · last-10 3 vs season 2.2.
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.3total bases · ±2.9
Julio Rodriguez · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

SEA is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-04ATL @ SEA4–5

Line move

open -149→-136toward ATL

The market has moved 2.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes