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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

30-19

5
4
SD

SD

29-19

Petco Park · San Diego, California
39,788 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SD no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL45.7%37.7%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · SD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD2000110015
SD2020000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    48.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.4%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 4, 26sim 94
    154
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    194
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 93
    105
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    165
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 93
    167
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 93
    157
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -174

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

SD +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD30-19
5
4
SD29-19
LAD30-19·SD29-19
LAD

LAD

30-19

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-33121010
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44223202
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-44000000
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33010012
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33001001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44110003
SPRINT28.381
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000001
Team6-32325652210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
4.0544122
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.1000110
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.2000000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2100100
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.1000120
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0000010
Team9.0644462
SD

SD

29-19

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-55120001
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-33112110
SPRINT26.530
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-11100020
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000001
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-33010010
SPRINT28.688
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000002
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44010001
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000000
R. LaureanoR. LaureanoLF
0-11000000
Team6-3333464246
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CanningG. Canning★SP
5.0433151
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0111011
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.0000020
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0100010
M. MillerM. MillerRP
0.2010100
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
0.1000010
Team9.06542102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • B. Treinen
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      67%·94.2 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      36%·88.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·101.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • W. Klein
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      18%·85.1 mph·0% whiff

SD

  • R. Marinaccio
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

May 19LADLAD0@SDSD1
May 20LADLAD5@SDSD4today
May 21LADLAD4@SDSD0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 19LADLAD0@SDSD1
May 20LADLAD5@SDSD4today
May 21LADLAD4@SDSD0
Jun 27LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jun 28LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jun 28LADLAD@SDSDupcoming
Jul 3SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 4SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 5SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Jul 5SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 23SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 24SDSD@LADLADupcoming
Sep 25SDSD@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-17464%
SDSD+14341%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 9th Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

SDSD
M. Andujar

M. Andujar

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

G. Canning

G. Canning

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SD 5-4. Padres's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 3rd Inning · 2-4
+21pp→ 70% WP

Andujar · homered to left (393 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.

LADTop 6th Inning · 4-4
+17pp→ 54% WP

Freeman · homered to right center (399 feet).

LADTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+33pp→ 85% WP

Padres · challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Alex Call scores.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD2000110015
SD2020000004

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SD

Home

5

Runs

4

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

15

TB

13

2

HR

2

2

BB

4

10

K

6

11

LOB

7

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·LAD -174/SD +143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

SD vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · SD won 1

2
2

Inn 1

Freeman 2

Machado 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Andujar 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Ohtani 1

1
0

Inn 6

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Padres 1

LAD
SD

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·SD 4

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  3. B9

    Tatis Jr. grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  6. B9

    Will Klein pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  7. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  8. B9

    Fermin grounded out to second.

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

    −5pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  13. B9

    Will Klein pitches to Freddy Fermin

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  14. B9

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  15. B9

    France struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

    −8pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  20. B9

    Will Klein pitches to Ty France

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  21. B9

    Klein relieved Scott

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  22. B9

    Espinal at third base.

    LAD 5·SD 4

  23. B9

    Call in left field.

    LAD 5·SD 4

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·SD 4

  25. T9

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  26. T9

    Teoscar Hernández challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Teoscar Hernández called out on strikes.

    · ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 5·SD 4

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872