Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — May 1, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

TEX

16-16

DET

16-17

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

28,622 attended

Line movement

61 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

52.9%

open 51.7% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.18

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-124

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

52.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

DET vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.3medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.4± 1.1high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.4± 1.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.6± 2.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.0high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Wyatt LangfordTEX
0.8± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high

Earned runs

Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.3medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.5± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

DET

.705

OPS

.718

.710

.318

OBP

.319

.315

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.09

3.93

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.82

1.25

WHIP

1.31

1.26

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · DET 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	5
DET	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.302	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
E. CarterCF	.185	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. SeagerSS	.211	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
J. Jung3B	.321	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.216	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.222	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.333	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
E. Duran2B	.274	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JansenC	.211	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. Smith2B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. HaggertyLF	.192	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	9	5	1	4	11

Player

.302

.185

.211

.321

.216

.222

.333

.274

.211

.188

.192

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	3.2	4	3	3	3	3	94
C. WinnRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	25
J. BeeksRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	22
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. LatzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	6	179

Player

3.2

0.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

179

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.246	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. McGonigleSS	.314	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. JonesDH	.211	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.291	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.233	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
W. PerezRF	.140	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.214	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
K. CarpenterRF	.221	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	4	7	4	0	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	3.2	5	4	4	3	4	91
E. De JesusRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	17
B. HanifeeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
B. HurterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
B. SmithRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	3	32
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	11	166

Team

TEX

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

DET vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.