MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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TOP 8TH+1ATH

ATH

18-17

PHI

16-20

Live · model leanTop 8thPolls every 30s

54.3%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 54.2% PHI

ATH 3 · 2 PHI

ATH +1

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.41

J. Springs

3-2 · 3.96 ERA

Z. Wheeler

1-0 · 2.45 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

60.8%

open 62.2% · -1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

6.8%

-47.4ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

low

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.37

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market came to the model

Player projections

PHI vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 45 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.5± 2.7low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.3± 4.0low
Aaron NolaPHI
5.7± 2.5low

Hits

Carlos CortesATH
1.3± 0.8high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.3± 0.7high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.4± 3.1high
Carlos CortesATH
2.2± 2.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.1± 2.9high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryson StottPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Jonah HeimATH
0.7± 2.1low

Earned runs

Jesus LuzardoPHI
3.3± 4.1low
Jacob LopezATH
3.1± 2.4low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

ATH

Athletics

18-17

vs54.2%PHI

PHI★

Phillies

16-20

ATH 45.8%win prob54.2% PHI

PHI 1510 · ATH 1505Box score→

MLBWed, May 6Top 8thSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -163

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

ATH · PHI

ATH

18-17

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
N. Kurtz★1B	2-4	0	1	0	1.000
J. Wilson★SS	1-4	0	1	0	0.500
T. Soderstrom★LF	1-4	1	1	1	1.250
B. Rooker★RF	1-3	0	0	0	0.667
C. Cortes★RF	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
J. McNeil★2B	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
J. Heim★C	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
L. Butler★RF	0-2	1	0	0	0.333
Z. Gelof★CF	1-3	1	0	0	0.667
Team	6-29	3	3	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
J. Springs★SP	5.1	8	2	4
J. SternerRP	0.2	0	0	0
J. PerkinsRP	1.0	0	0	2
Team	7.0	8	2	6

PHI

16-20

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
T. Turner★SS	1-4	0	0	0	0.500
K. Schwarber★LF	1-3	0	0	0	0.667
B. Harper★1B	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
A. Garcia★RF	1-3	1	1	1	1.667
E. Sosa★2B	1-3	0	0	0	0.667
J.T. Realmuto★C	2-3	0	0	0	1.333
B. Marsh★LF	2-3	1	0	0	1.333
A. Bohm★3B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
F. Reyes★LF	0-2	0	1	0	0.000
B. Stott2B	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
J. CrawfordCF	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
Team	8-28	2	2	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
Z. Wheeler★SP	6.1	5	3	4
T. MayzaRP	0.2	0	0	1
J. AlvaradoRP	0.2	1	0	2
Team	7.2	6	3	7

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

PHI leads series 1-0

May 5

ATH1@

PHI9

May 6

ATH@

PHItoday

May 7

ATH@

PHIupcoming

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

May 5

ATH1@

PHI9

May 6

ATH@

PHItoday

May 7

ATH@

PHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

1.5pt· 6h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6h

Moneyline

ATH+13543%

PHI-16362%

11· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

ATHSP

J. Springs

#59 · 3-2

ERA

3.96

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vs

KC3.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/25@

TEX6.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(3-2)

4/19vs

CHW5.0 IP · 7 ER · 7 KL(3-1)

PHISP

Z. Wheeler

#45 · 1-0

ERA

2.45

—

Last 3 starts

5/1@

MIA6.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 KW(1-0)

4/25@

ATL5.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

ATH5L · 3R · 1S

1
N. Kurtz
1B · #16
L
2
J. Wilson
SS · #5
R
3
T. Soderstrom
LF · #21
L
4
B. Rooker
DH · #25
R
5
C. Cortes
RF · #26
L
6
J. McNeil
2B · #22
L
7
J. Heim
C · #15
B
8
L. Butler
CF · #4
L
9
Z. Gelof
3B · #20
R

PHI3L · 6R

1
T. Turner
SS · #7
R
2
K. Schwarber
DH · #12
L
3
B. Harper
1B · #3
L
4
A. Garcia
RF · #53
R
5
E. Sosa
3B · #33
R
6
J.T. Realmuto
C · #10
R
7
B. Marsh
LF · #16
L
8
A. Bohm
3B · #28
R
9
F. Reyes
LF · #29
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 8th

Game flowATH ↔ PHI

Recent swing: 14pp · Bottom 6th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

ATH

T. Soderstrom

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Springs

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 8 H

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 3 ER

PHI

A. Garcia

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 3 ER

How it's going

ATH lead PHI 3-2 (Top 8th).

Win probability

PHI vs ATH

Score progression

0 lead changes

ATH3

PHI2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 2-0

+13pp→ 45% WP

Marsh · tripled to center.

ATHTop 6th Inning · 3-1

+14pp→ 73% WP

Soderstrom · homered to left (363 feet).

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 3-2

+14pp→ 40% WP

Garc · ía homered to center (421 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	R
ATH	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	3
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	—	2

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · PHI won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Wilson 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

Kurtz 1

Reyes 1

Inn 6

Soderstrom 1

Garc 1

Inn 7

Inn 8

ATH

PHI

Game flow · key plays

B6
García homered to center (421 feet).
ATH 3·PHI 2
+14pp
T6
Soderstrom homered to left (363 feet).
ATH 3·PHI 1
−14pp
B5
Marsh tripled to center.
ATH 2·PHI 0
+13pp
T5
Kurtz singled to right, Gelof scored.
ATH 2·PHI 0
−13pp
T3
Wilson singled to right, Butler scored.
ATH 1·PHI 0
−12pp
T3
Butler walked.
ATH 0·PHI 0
−8pp

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·ATH +135/PHI -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

6.8%

-47.4ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

low

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.37

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market came to the model

Player projections

PHI vs ATH.

123

projections · 45 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.5± 2.7low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.3± 4.0low
Aaron NolaPHI
5.7± 2.5low

Hits

Carlos CortesATH
1.3± 0.8high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.3± 0.7high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.4± 3.1high
Carlos CortesATH
2.2± 2.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.1± 2.9high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryson StottPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Jonah HeimATH
0.7± 2.1low

Earned runs

Jesus LuzardoPHI
3.3± 4.1low
Jacob LopezATH
3.1± 2.4low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

55.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen