• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+10TEX
TEX

TEX

23-25

10
0
COL

COL

19-30

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
15,916 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

45.8%

open 46.7% · -0.9

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 10.0TOTAL50.7%41.8%COL NO-VIG %May 19, 12 AMMay 19, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 10 · COL 0 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX23021011010
COL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+61.7pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +61.7pp · implied 0.0%

COL

no live price

BookTEXCOLBest edge
DraftKings—★-112+61.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasCOL -112

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 10–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 10). Total pushed exactly on 10.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX23-25
10
0
COL19-30
TEX23-25·COL19-30
TEX

TEX

23-25

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-00100010
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
1-44111011
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-44333101
SPRINT28.278
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33110020
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
3-55034000
SPRINT28.891
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-44021010
SPRINT2744
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-44000011
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-55110001
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-55110002
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
4-55141000
SPRINT25.716
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-11100000
Team16-4040101610166
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. AlexanderT. Alexander★RP
1.0000010
K. RockerK. RockerSP
7.2300370
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
0.1000000
Team9.0300380
COL

COL

19-30

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000011
SPRINT27.969
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-33000000
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-33000001
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-44000001
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-22000020
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.326
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-00000000
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-33000002
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-33000001
B. FulfordB. FulfordC
0-11000001
T. FreemanT. FreemanRF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
Team3-2929030038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. PeraltaS. Peralta★RP
0.2222210
T. GordonT. GordonRP
6.11277151
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.0211200
B. SullivanB. SullivanC
1.0000100
SPRINT2872
Team9.0161010661

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • T. Alexander
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      36%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.7 mph·0% whiff

COL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

3

10

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

May 19TEXTEX6@COLCOL7
May 20TEXTEX10@COLCOL0today
May 20TEXTEX5@COLCOL4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 19TEXTEX6@COLCOL7
May 20TEXTEX10@COLCOL0today
May 20TEXTEX5@COLCOL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-10852%
COLCOL-11253%

↗4· 1.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Top relieverGem

7.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

COLCOL
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

T. Gordon

T. Gordon

RP

Top reliever

6.1 IP · 5 K · 7 ER · 12 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat COL 10-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 78% WP

Duran · doubled to right, McCutchen scored and Nimmo scored, Jung to third.

TEXTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 80% WP

Nimmo · singled to right, Pederson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX23021011010
COL0000000000

Period scoring

TEX won 6 · COL won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Duran 2

3
0

Inn 2

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Nimmo 2

1
0

Inn 5

Foscue 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Pederson 1

1
0

Inn 8

Duran 1

0
0

Inn 9

TEX
COL

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 10·COL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  3. B9

    Johnston fouled out to third.

    · ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  7. B9

    Jalen Beeks pitches to Troy Johnston

    · ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  8. B9

    Beeks relieved Rocker

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  9. B9

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  10. B9

    Tovar walked.

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  17. B9

    Kumar Rocker pitches to Ezequiel Tovar

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  18. B9

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  19. B9

    Rumfield struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  24. B9

    Kumar Rocker pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  25. B9

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  26. B9

    Fulford struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 10·COL 0

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

COL

Home

10

Runs

0

16

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

25

TB

3

1

HR

0

6

BB

3

6

K

8

23

LOB

11

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 10·TEX -108/COL -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.90

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

53.3%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

COL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.7± 1.9high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.7± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    34.8%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    30.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    34.3%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 18, 26sim 96
    136
    27(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 96
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    298
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 91
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 88
    2210
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 88
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872