• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4COL
HOU

HOU

6-6

1
5
COL

COL

5-6

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
17,328 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

40.0%

open 40.0%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.5TOTAL44.0%36.0%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 39.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

HOU 1 · COL 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
COL010200205

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 61-43
62%Last 30 · 324-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesCOL wins series 3-0/VegasHOU -168

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Houston Astros, 5–1.

COL +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 11.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Willi Castro

Willi Castro

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-6
1
5
COL5-6
HOU6-6·COL5-6
HOU

HOU

6-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-33000010
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-33000000
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000003
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.395
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-33000000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000000
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-22000001
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000001
Team3-3030131118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
5.1833131
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0111100
K. TengK. TengRP
0.2111001
C. RoaC. RoaRP
1.0000010
Team8.01055242
COL

COL

5-6

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-33010000
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-44112100
SPRINT2872
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-44000001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.326
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
2-33120010
SPRINT24.85
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
3-44133101
SPRINT27.969
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
0-33000000
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
1-33010000
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-22110011
SPRINT27.251
H. GoodmanH. GoodmanC
0-11000000
Team10-31315105224
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. FreelandK. Freeland★SP
6.1311151
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
2.2000030
Team9.0311181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Roa
    34 pitches·12% CSW
    • SL
      38%·86.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      35%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • K. Teng
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·84.3 mph·0% whiff

COL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

10

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

COL wins series 3-0

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5today
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5today
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9
Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-16863%
COLCOL+13942%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

COLCOL
W. Castro

W. Castro

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

COL beat HOU 5-1. Castro's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

COL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 54% WP

Beck · grounded into double play, second to first, Castro out at second, Rumfield to third.

COLBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+24pp→ 71% WP

Castro · homered to right center (436 feet), Rumfield scored.

COLBottom 7th Inning · 1-5
+12pp→ 97% WP

Moniak · homered to right center (426 feet), Karros scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
COL01020020—5

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · COL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Walker 1

Castro 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Castro 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Moniak 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
COL

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  2. T9

    Walker grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  5. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  6. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  7. T9

    Paredes struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  13. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Isaac Paredes

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  14. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  15. T9

    Altuve struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

    +1pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  20. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 1·COL 5

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 1·COL 5

  23. B8

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  24. B8

    Castro struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 5

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

COL

Home

1

Runs

5

3

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

6

TB

16

1

HR

2

1

BB

2

8

K

4

8

LOB

12

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 11·HOU -168/COL +139

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

COL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    4.8± 2.8low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    37.7%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    34.5%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.7%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 93
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    181
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 88
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 87
    187
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 87
    221
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs