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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1COL
TEX

TEX

22-25

6
7
COL

COL

19-29

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
16,126 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

COL no-vig %

41.6%

open 41.7% · -0.2

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL45.7%37.6%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.4%May 17, 6 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

TEX 6 · COL 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0100110306
COL202201007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+46.5pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
+1100DraftKings

edge +46.5pp · implied 15.1%

COL

no live price

BookTEXCOLBest edge
DraftKings+1100★+114+46.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -138

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Texas Rangers, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Justin Foscue

Justin Foscue

2B

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Willi Castro

Willi Castro

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX22-25
6
7
COL19-29
TEX22-25·COL19-29
TEX

TEX

22-25

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-33010000
SPRINT27.662
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-44000012
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-55110000
SPRINT25.920
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44110012
SPRINT2744
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-44100010
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
3-44232000
SPRINT28.891
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
3-33133110
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
0-22000001
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
1-22010001
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-11000001
K. HigashiokaK. HigashiokaC
0-11000000
A. OsunaA. OsunaLF
0-22001000
E. CarterE. CarterCF
0-22000001
Team10-37376106148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
1.0322220
P. GrayP. GrayRP
2.2242130
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.1100000
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
1.0111100
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0000010
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000000
Team8.0775460
COL

COL

19-29

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT27.969
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-33211011
SPRINT28.483
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-33011010
SPRINT24.85
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-44100002
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-33112010
SPRINT27.867
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-44010001
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-33000001
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
1-44010000
B. FulfordB. Fulford★C
0-22200010
E. JulienE. Julien2B
0-11000000
M. MoniakM. MoniakLF
0-11000000
Team7-3232775046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
5.2733141
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.1000030
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.0100100
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.0100010
Team9.01066481

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Beeks
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

COL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

6

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

May 19TEXTEX6@COLCOL7today
May 20TEXTEX10@COLCOL0
May 20TEXTEX5@COLCOL4

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

May 19TEXTEX6@COLCOL7today
May 20TEXTEX10@COLCOL0
May 20TEXTEX5@COLCOL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-13858%
COLCOL+11447%

↗1· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 4th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Foscue

J. Foscue

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

P. Gray

P. Gray

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

COLCOL
W. Castro

W. Castro

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

COL beat TEX 7-6. Jung's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

COL vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 78% WP

Tovar · doubled to left, Castro scored and Doyle scored, Rumfield to third.

COLTop 4th Inning · 1-4
+19pp→ 83% WP

Jung · grounded out to shortstop.

COLTop 8th Inning · 6-7
+14pp→ 84% WP

Higashioka · fouled out to catcher.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0100110306
COL20220100—7

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · COL won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Tovar 2

1
0

Inn 2

Foscue 1

0
2

Inn 3

Goodman 2

0
2

Inn 4

Doyle 1

1
0

Inn 5

Foscue 1

1
1

Inn 6

Foscue 1

Castro 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Duran 2

0

Inn 9

TEX
COL

Play-by-play · 575 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  2. T9

    Jansen flied out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

    +9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  7. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Danny Jansen

    · ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  8. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  9. T9

    Burger singled to right.

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

    −4pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  12. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Jake Burger

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  13. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  14. T9

    Jung grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

    +7pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  19. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  20. T9

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  21. T9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

    +7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  28. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  29. T9

    Mejia relieved Bernardino

    ·

    TEX 6·COL 7

  30. T9

    Moniak as designated hitter.

    TEX 6·COL 7

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

COL

Home

6

Runs

7

10

Hits

7

2

Errors

0

16

TB

10

1

HR

0

4

BB

4

8

K

6

12

LOB

16

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 9·TEX -138/COL +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 97
    298
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 91
    187
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 88
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 88
    2210
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

COL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.7± 1.9high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.7± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    35.1%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    33.6%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    34.6%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.