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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
TOR

TOR

21-27

4
5
NYY

NYY

30-19

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
37,181 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

NYY no-vig %

55.1%

open 56.3% · -1.2

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%51.1%NYY NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 4 · NYY 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0003000014
NYY000320005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.3pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

NYY

★ best
-117DraftKings

edge +14.3pp · implied 50.6%

BookTORNYYBest edge
DraftKings-111-117★+14.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYY -132

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

TOR +1.5 cashed (NYY won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR21-27
4
5
NYY30-19
TOR21-27·NYY30-19
TOR

TOR

21-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-55010001
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33001001
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
4-55140000
SPRINT26.838
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44100011
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
1-33111001
SPRINT2622
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT25.818
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-22000011
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33111010
SPRINT27.560
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000001
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
0-11000001
E. ClementE. Clement2B
1-11010000
Team9-3434494037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
5.0455492
A. MackoA. MackoRP
0.2100010
C. LeeC. LeeRP
0.1000200
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0100010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000010
Team8.06556122
NYY

NYY

30-19

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33100013
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33100012
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
2-44123100
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010000
S. JonesS. Jones★RF
0-22000002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22000012
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000011
Team6-29295652612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.0633130
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0000110
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2000010
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.1100020
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0211100
Team9.0944370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • D. Cease
    100 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      39%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      35%·89.8 mph·54% whiff
    • SI
      10%·97.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·81.8 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      7%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Macko
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      7%·77.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Lee
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      38%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      38%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      23%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      56%·82.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      44%·90.7 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Varland
    6 pitches·67% CSW
    • CH
      33%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.4 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      17%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·91.0 mph·100% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    86 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.5 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.3 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      46%·83.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      4%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    22 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      68%·99.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·99.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      5%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      65%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      35%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Bird
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      27%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.8 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5today
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0

Season series

NYY lead series 2-0

May 18TORTOR6@NYYNYY7
May 19TORTOR4@NYYNYY5today
May 20TORTOR2@NYYNYY1
May 21TORTOR2@NYYNYY0
Jun 12NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Jun 13NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Jun 14NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 14NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 15NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 16NYYNYY@TORTORupcoming
Aug 21TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 22TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming
Aug 23TORTOR@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

TORTOR+10948%
NYYNYY-13257%

↗7· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TORTOR
E. Clement

E. Clement

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
R. McMahon

R. McMahon

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TOR 5-4. McMahon's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 4th Inning · 3-3
+31pp→ 61% WP

McMahon · homered to left (383 feet), Judge scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.

NYYBottom 5th Inning · 3-5
+19pp→ 86% WP

Rice · homered to right center (366 feet), Grisham scored.

TORTop 9th Inning · 3-5
+16pp→ 28% WP

Clement · singled to right, Giménez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0003000014
NYY00032000—5

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
3

Inn 4

Pinango 1

McMahon 3

0
2

Inn 5

Rice 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Jr. 1

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  2. T9

    Okamoto grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

    +15pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  4. T9

    Varsho stole second.

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  5. T9

    Varsho stole second.

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  9. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  10. T9

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  11. T9

    Varsho reached on infield single to second, Clement to third.

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

    −3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  13. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Daulton Varsho

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  14. T9

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  15. T9

    Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Giménez scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

    +9pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  22. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    · ·

    TOR 4·NYY 5

  23. T9

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  24. T9

    Springer lined out to pitcher, Clement to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

    +7pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  28. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to George Springer

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  29. T9

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

  30. T9

    Clement singled to right, Giménez to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 5

    −16pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

5

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

9

TB

12

0

HR

2

3

BB

6

7

K

12

16

LOB

11

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·TOR +109/NYY -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.01

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-137

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

55.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    63.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.0%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 14, 26sim 96
    262
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    206
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    282
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    142
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 94
    266
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 94
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs