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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CLE

CLE

29-22

3
2
DET

DET

20-30

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
20,450 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

DET no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

+2.0+1.0DET SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL49.8%41.8%DET NO-VIG %May 20, 12 AMMay 20, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · DET 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
CLE00000000123
DET00000010012

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.3pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best
-110DraftKings

edge +12.3pp · implied 49.1%

DET

no live price

BookCLEDETBest edge
DraftKings-110★-119+12.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 98
    54
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 97
    53
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    84
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    82
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 92
    252
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 92
    140
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 4-0/VegasCLE -115

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (CLE won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Zach McKinstry

Zach McKinstry

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
CLE29-22
3
2
DET20-30
CLE29-22·DET20-30
CLE

CLE

29-22

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-55111000
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-55011003
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
2-44020011
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-33010001
SPRINT24.96
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-55110001
SPRINT27.457
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-11000010
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-22010010
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-44001001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33100012
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo1B
0-22000002
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana2B
1-22010000
Team8-36363830411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
8.0411150
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.1000210
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
0.2000020
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0110010
Team10.0521390
DET

DET

20-30

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-55000000
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-22100020
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000011
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-33001001
SPRINT28.483
G. WorkmanG. Workman★3B
0-33000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.941
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
1-44010001
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
1-33010001
W. PerezW. PerezRF
0-11100001
SPRINT27.969
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson1B
0-11000000
Team5-3333252039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. AndersonD. Anderson★RP
4.2200270
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0200010
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.1000100
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000110
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0211010
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0221010
Team10.08324110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    104 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      14%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      73%·95.9 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.0 mph·50% whiff

DET

  • D. Anderson
    63 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      51%·94.8 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.9 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      83%·93.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.1 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Holton
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      33%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      25%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      67%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 4-0

May 18CLECLE8@DETDET2
May 19CLECLE4@DETDET3
May 20CLECLE3@DETDET2today
May 21CLECLE3@DETDET1

Season series

CLE leads series 3-0

May 18CLECLE8@DETDET2
May 19CLECLE4@DETDET3
May 20CLECLE3@DETDET2today
May 21CLECLE3@DETDET1
Jun 12DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 13DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 14DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 11CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Aug 12CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Aug 13CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Sep 4DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 5DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 6DETDET@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE-11553%
DETDET-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 10th Inning

CLECLE
S. Kwan

S. Kwan

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

DETDET
Z. McKinstry

Z. McKinstry

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

D. Anderson

D. Anderson

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 3-2. Mart's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

DET vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 9th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 38% WP

Bazzana · singled to left, Schneemann to second.

CLETop 10th Inning · 2-1
+30pp→ 83% WP

Mart · ínez tripled to right, Rocchio scored.

DETBottom 10th Inning · 3-2
+14pp→ 29% WP

McKinstry · singled to right, Pérez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
CLE00000000123
DET00000010012

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Vierling 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Bailey 1

2
1

Inn 10

Mart 1

McKinstry 1

CLE
DET

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    CLE 3·DET 2

  2. B10

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  3. B10

    Keith popped out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

    −8pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  8. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  9. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  10. B10

    Cade Smith pitches to Colt Keith

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  11. B10

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  12. B10

    Torkelson fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

    −10pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  14. B10

    Cade Smith pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  15. B10

    Torkelson hit for Rogers

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  16. B10

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  17. B10

    Lee struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

    −11pp

  18. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  19. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  20. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  21. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  22. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  23. B10

    Cade Smith pitches to Hao-Yu Lee

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  24. B10

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  25. B10

    McKinstry singled to right, Pérez scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

    +14pp

  26. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  27. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  28. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

  29. B10

    Cade Smith pitches to Zach McKinstry

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 2

  30. B10

    Smith relieved Holderman

    ·

    CLE 3·DET 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

3

Runs

2

8

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

11

TB

5

0

HR

0

4

BB

3

11

K

9

17

LOB

15

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·CLE -115/DET -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    40.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.8%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.3%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.