Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at WSH?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+3MIL

MIL

18-14

WSH

15-19

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

25,287 attended

Line movement

101 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.5 · -1.0

WSH no-vig %

44.7%

open 44.9% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
42.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.2%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.9%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.19

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-137

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at WSH?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

WSH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.8medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.6± 2.1medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.3± 1.2high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.2± 1.0low
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.7± 3.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.0low
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 2.9low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

WSH

.729

OPS

.719

▶

.743

.338

OBP

◀

.319

.321

5.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.29

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.60

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 4 · WSH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4
WSH	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MitchellCF	.239	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Turang2B	.291	3	0	1	0	0	2	1
W. ContrerasC	.308	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
G. SanchezC	.209	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. Bauers1B	.243	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. Rengifo3B	.194	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. LockridgeLF	.269	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
S. FrelickRF	.212	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.186	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.253	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	7	3	0	6	6

Player

.239

.291

.308

.209

.243

.194

.269

.212

.186

.253

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. HarrisonSP	6.0	7	1	1	1	5	93
G. AndersonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
D. HallRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	24
Team	9.0	9	1	1	1	6	145

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.238	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. Mead1B	.214	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. House3B	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.289	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. YoungCF	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WiemerRF	.310	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.208	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.186	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.259	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.238	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	9	1	0	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	6.0	3	3	0	4	3	97
B. LordRP	2.0	4	1	1	2	2	50
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	4	1	6	6	161

Team

MIL

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

WSH vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.