Matchup orbital

CHC

5

CHC

CHC

19-12

Final

Win prob

49/51

AWAY · HOME

SD

4

SD

SD

19-11

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 5 · SD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0102010105
SD0000300104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLBGame · Wed, Apr 29Final
CHC

CHC19-12

CHC

@

19-11SD

SD

SD
SeriesCHC win series 2-1VegasSD -115

Recap · MLB

hicago Cubs went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

SD +1.5 cashed (CHC won by 1). Total pushed exactly on 9.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FINALFinal
CHC
CHCWIN19-125
FINAL
SD
SD19-114

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 28CHCCHC7@SDSD9
Apr 29CHCCHC8@SDSD3
Apr 29CHCCHC5@SDSD4today

Season series

CHC lead series 2-1

Apr 28CHCCHC7@SDSD9
Apr 29CHCCHC8@SDSD3
Apr 29CHCCHC5@SDSD4today
Jun 30SDSD@CHCCHCupcoming
Jul 1SDSD@CHCCHCupcoming
Jul 1SDSD@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-10551%
SDSD-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement

1 snapshot on file

Movement tracking online — chart appears once we have two or more snapshots logged for this game. Keep this tab open and refresh after the next ingest cycle.

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

SDSD
N. Castellanos

N. Castellanos

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

M. Waldron

M. Waldron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat SD 5-4. Machado's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

CHC5
SD4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+19pp→ 82% WP

Crow-Armstrong · homered to right (357 feet), Shaw scored.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+28pp→ 51% WP

Castellanos · homered to left center (405 feet), Cronenworth scored.

CHCBottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+34pp→ 84% WP

Machado · grounded into double play, second to first, Merrill out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0102010105
SD0000300104

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Amaya 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Crow-Armstrong 2

0
3

Inn 5

Castellanos 2

1
0

Inn 6

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Shaw 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
SD

Game flow · key plays

  1. B8

    Machado grounded into double play, second to first, Merrill out at second.

    CHC 5·SD 4

    −34pp

  2. B8

    Merrill walked, Johnson to second, Castellanos to third.

    CHC 5·SD 3

    +16pp

  3. T8

    Shaw homered to left (351 feet).

    CHC 5·SD 3

    −13pp

  4. B5

    Castellanos homered to left center (405 feet), Cronenworth scored.

    CHC 3·SD 3

    +28pp

  5. T4

    Crow-Armstrong homered to right (357 feet), Shaw scored.

    CHC 3·SD 0

    −19pp

  6. T1

    Busch grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Happ out at second.

    CHC 0·SD 0

    +14pp

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

SD

Home

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

5

Runs

4

Player box score

CHC

CHC

19-12

5
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner★

2B

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-5

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Bregman

A. Bregman★

3B

OPS

0.933

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

I. Happ

I. Happ★

LF

OPS

0.650

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

M. Busch

M. Busch★

1B

OPS

0.200

H-AB

0-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

M. Conforto

M. Conforto★

RF

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

2

RBI

0

HR

0

M. Shaw

M. Shaw★

RF

OPS

2.250

H-AB

3-4

R

2

RBI

1

HR

1

P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong★

CF

OPS

1.250

H-AB

1-4

R

1

RBI

3

HR

1

M. Amaya

M. Amaya★

C

OPS

0.833

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

9-35

R

5

RBI

5

HR

2

J. Taillon

J. Taillon★

SP

IP

7.0

H

3

ER

3

K

6

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

IP

1.2

H

0

ER

0

K

1

H. Milner

H. Milner

RP

IP

0.1

H

0

ER

0

K

1

Team total

IP

9.0

H

3

ER

4

K

8

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 9·CHC -105/SD -115

DraftKings · via ESPN