Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 29, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

CHC

19-12

19-11

Petco Park · San Diego, California

36,513 attended

Line movement

59 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

SD no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.0%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.1%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.8± 2.8low
Griffin CanningSD
4.6± 2.4low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Samad TaylorSD
1.4± 1.1low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Griffin CanningSD
3.4± 3.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.738

OPS

◀

.718

.656

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.75

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.86

4.28

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.85

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 5 · SD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	5
SD	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.338	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.258	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
I. HappLF	.230	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
M. Busch1B	.193	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ConfortoDH	.300	4	2	1	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.301	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.241	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
M. AmayaC	.240	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
Team		35	5	9	5	2	5	3

Player

.291

.338

.258

.230

.193

.300

.301

.241

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	7.0	3	3	3	1	6	95
C. MartinRP	0.0	0	1	1	3	0	19
B. BrownRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	11
H. MilnerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
Team	9.0	3	4	4	4	8	128

Player

7.0

0.0

1.2

0.1

Team

9.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MerrillCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
X. BogaertsSS	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.313	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.146	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. CastellanosRF	.164	2	2	1	2	1	1	1
L. CampusanoC	.326	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. Sheets1B	.233	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.252	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.170	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	4	3	4	2	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WaldronSP	5.0	6	3	3	1	1	83
A. MorejonRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	16
B. RodriguezRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	22
J. AdamRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	25
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	9	5	5	5	3	165

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.