Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at SEA?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+1SEA

ATL

25-11

SEA

17-19

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

26,934 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

59.3%

open 60.8% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.1%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+144

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at SEA?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.4± 2.4medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 3.6medium

Hits

Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.3± 1.1high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.0± 2.5high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.0± 2.7high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Drake BaldwinATL
0.7± 0.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.1high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
2.9± 3.5medium
George KirbySEA
2.9± 1.6medium
Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

SEA

.738

OPS

◀

.719

.700

.317

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.96

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.19

3.62

1.20

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

ATL 4 · SEA 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.313	4	1	1	1	1	1	0
O. Albies2B	.331	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Olson1B	.300	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
M. DubonSS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.213	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.202	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. MurphyC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. WhiteCF	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MateoSS	.289	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.318	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.343	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AzocarRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	9	4	4	2	8

Player

.313

.331

.300

.258

.213

.202

.000

.222

.289

.318

.343

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RitchieSP	5.0	4	3	3	6	2	93
T. KinleyRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	23
A. BummerRP	0.2	2	0	0	1	1	14
C. CarrascoRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	19
Team	8.0	8	5	5	8	6	149

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

8.0

149

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.208	3	1	1	2	1	2	0
J. RodriguezCF	.268	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.223	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.273	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.270	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.253	2	1	1	3	1	1	0
C. Young2B	.266	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. GarverC	.186	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. Rivas3B	.141	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. RefsnyderDH	.143	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JoeRF	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	5	8	5	2	8	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GilbertSP	6.0	6	4	4	2	4	89
J. FerrerRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	16
E. BazardoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	11
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	9	4	4	2	8	130

Team

ATL

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SEA vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SEA vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.