MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MON, 9:40 PM EDT

ATL

25-10

SEA

16-19

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.95

J. Ritchie

1-0 · 2.92 ERA

L. Gilbert

1-3 · 4.03 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

JR Ritchie

SP · #60

1-0

W-L

2.92

ERA

1.30

WHIP

12.1

Last 2 starts

vsDET-5.1 IP2 ER4 K

@WSHW(1-0)7.0 IP2 ER7 K

Home starter

Logan Gilbert

SP · #36

1-3

W-L

4.03

ERA

1.29

WHIP

38.0

Last 3 starts

@MIN-5.0 IP1 ER4 K

vsATH-4.0 IP3 ER3 K

vsTEXL(1-3)5.1 IP2 ER7 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+119 / -143

Model edge

Win prob53% / 47%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

No prior meetings logged this season yet.

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+119Bet ATL ML↗+119Bet ATL ML↗

-143Bet SEA ML↗-143Bet SEA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

ATL

1.D. BaldwinDH
2.O. Albies2B
3.M. Olson1B
4.M. DubonCF
5.A. Riley3B
6.M. YastrzemskiLF
7.S. MurphyC
8.E. WhiteRF
9.J. MateoSS

SEA

1.J.P. CrawfordSS
2.J. RodriguezCF
3.J. Naylor1B
4.R. ArozarenaLF
5.D. CanzoneDH
6.L. RaleyRF
7.C. Young2B
8.M. GarverC
9.L. Rivas3B

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA implied %

62.0%

open 63.6% · -1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLock

DraftKings · snapped 1h ago

+9.1ppon

ATL

ATLWin prob axisSEA SEA

Market 56%

Model 47%

0%50%100%

ModelATL 53%Pre-game prob

MarketATL 44%No-vig · 4.5% hold

Edge+9.1ppModel finds value

ATL +119/

SEA -143

+119Bet ATL ML↗+119Bet ATL ML↗

The One modelTossup

Mon, May 4

ATL★

Braves

25-10

vs53%ATL

SEA

Mariners

16-19

ATL 53%win prob47% SEA

ATL 1555 · SEA 1511Box score→

MLBMon, May 45/4 - 9:40 PM EDTVegasSEA -143

Preview · MLB

tlanta Braves visit Seattle Mariners Monday at 5/4 - 9:40 PM EDT. ATL arrives on a 3-game win streak (9-3 in their last 12).

Vegas opened SEA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.0. SEA's moneyline implies a 59% break-even, ATL the inverse.

For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.0 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

ATL · SEA

ATL

25-10

D. Baldwin★

OPS

0.797

H-AB

45-143

RBI

O. Albies★

OPS

0.822

H-AB

45-135

RBI

M. Olson★

OPS

0.839

H-AB

41-137

RBI

M. Dubon★

OPS

0.583

H-AB

32-120

RBI

A. Riley★

OPS

0.500

H-AB

27-132

RBI

M. Yastrzemski★

OPS

0.400

H-AB

20-100

RBI

S. Murphy★

OPS

—

H-AB

-----

RBI

E. White★

OPS

0.560

H-AB

11-50

RBI

J. Mateo★

OPS

0.714

H-AB

12-42

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
D. Baldwin★C	45-143	29	8	0.797
O. Albies★2B	45-135	22	7	0.822
M. Olson★1B	41-137	31	11	0.839
M. Dubon★SS	32-120	18	2	0.583
A. Riley★3B	27-132	21	4	0.500
M. Yastrzemski★LF	20-100	6	0	0.400
S. Murphy★C	-----	--	--	—
E. White★CF	11-50	9	2	0.560
J. Mateo★SS	12-42	5	2	0.714
Team	-----	--	--	—

J. Ritchie★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
J. Ritchie★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

SEA

16-19

J.P. Crawford★

OPS

0.473

H-AB

19-93

RBI

J. Rodriguez★

OPS

0.623

H-AB

37-138

RBI

J. Naylor★

OPS

0.528

H-AB

27-125

RBI

R. Arozarena★

OPS

0.616

H-AB

34-125

RBI

D. Canzone★

OPS

0.653

H-AB

19-72

RBI

L. Raley★

OPS

0.663

H-AB

22-89

RBI

C. Young★

OPS

0.605

H-AB

33-124

RBI

M. Garver★

OPS

0.400

H-AB

8-40

RBI

L. Rivas★

OPS

0.293

H-AB

12-82

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J.P. Crawford★SS	19-93	7	2	0.473
J. Rodriguez★CF	37-138	16	4	0.623
J. Naylor★1B	27-125	17	4	0.528
R. Arozarena★LF	34-125	12	3	0.616
D. Canzone★RF	19-72	12	3	0.653
L. Raley★RF	22-89	13	5	0.663
C. Young★2B	33-124	19	3	0.605
M. Garver★C	8-40	1	0	0.400
L. Rivas★3B	12-82	7	0	0.293
Team	-----	--	--	—

L. Gilbert★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
L. Gilbert★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Season series

May 5

ATL@

SEAtoday

May 6

ATL@

SEAupcoming

May 6

ATL@

SEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+11946%

SEA-14359%

8· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

ATLSP

J. Ritchie

#60 · 1-0

ERA

2.92

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

DET5.1 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/23@

WSH7.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 KW(1-0)

SEASP

L. Gilbert

#36 · 1-3

ERA

4.03

—

Last 3 starts

4/28@

MIN5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K-

4/22vs

ATH4.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

4/18vs

TEX5.1 IP · 2 ER · 7 KL(1-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

ATL3L · 5R · 1S

1
D. Baldwin
DH
L
2
O. Albies
2B
B
3
M. Olson
1B
L
4
M. Dubon
CF
R
5
A. Riley
3B
R
6
M. Yastrzemski
LF
L
7
S. Murphy
C
R
8
E. White
RF
R
9
J. Mateo
SS
R

SEA5L · 3R · 1S

1
J.P. Crawford
SS
L
2
J. Rodriguez
CF
R
3
J. Naylor
1B
L
4
R. Arozarena
LF
R
5
D. Canzone
DH
L
6
L. Raley
RF
L
7
C. Young
2B
L
8
M. Garver
C
R
9
L. Rivas
3B
B

Scouting report

ATL @ SEA

5/4 - 9:40 PM EDT

StorylineATL riding a 3-game win streak · SEA lost 3 in a row.

Rest going in

ATLStandard

1 day

last game May 3

SEAStandard

1 day

last game May 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

SEA -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SEA -143

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

ATLmetricSEA

25-10

Record

16-19

Conf rank

+2.4

Pt diff

+0.1

Streak

8-2

Last 10

6-4

Bullpen used yesterday

ATL

5.7 bullpen IP · heavy

A. Bummer1.0 IP16 P
D. Fuentes0.2 IP8 P
D. Lee1.0 IP9 P
R. Lopez1.0 IP12 P
T. Kinley1.0 IP11 P
R. Suarez1.0 IP16 P

W 11-6 · May 3

SEA

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

A. Hoppe1.0 IP18 P
C. Wilcox1.0 IP20 P
N. Davila1.0 IP16 P

L 4-1 · May 3

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

334

Hits

265

Errors

205

Runs

143

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·ATL +119/SEA -143

DraftKings · via ESPN