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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9PHI
PHI

PHI

4-3

10
1
COL

COL

2-5

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
48,366 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

37.8%

open 37.8%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 10.0TOTAL41.8%33.8%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 10 · COL 1 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI71101000010
COL0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-186

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 90
    221
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 90
    222
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 89
    187
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 88
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 88
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -186

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI4-3
10
1
COL2-5
PHI4-3·COL2-5
PHI

PHI

4-3

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
3-44231001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-33211121
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-33221110
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-55123001
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-55121001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44010001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-55113101
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44110000
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-44000001
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
0-11000000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
O. KempO. KempLF
0-11000001
Team13-4040101310339
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
6.1511190
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.2000010
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000020
Z. PopZ. PopRP
1.0000130
Team9.05112150
COL

COL

2-5

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.326
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-44000003
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT2872
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.867
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-33000012
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.969
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-44010003
SPRINT28.483
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-33000001
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-33000002
Team5-32321510215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
3.01299222
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
6.0111171
Team9.0131010393

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • A. Nola
    95 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.3 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      28%·77.6 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·85.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Pop
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      18%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      54%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      38%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Backhus
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      56%·91.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      44%·77.6 mph·50% whiff

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    77 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      29%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.6 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      14%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.5 mph·50% whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    77 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      29%·85.7 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      23%·90.1 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      17%·79.6 mph·63% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      9%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·74.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

5

10

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1today
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1today
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4
May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-18665%
COLCOL+15340%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 1st Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

COLCOL
E. Tovar

E. Tovar

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

V. Bellozo

V. Bellozo

RP

Top relieverQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat COL 10-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 1st Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 78% WP

Bohm · singled to center, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Harper to third.

PHITop 1st Inning · 6-0
+10pp→ 92% WP

Marsh · homered to right center (454 feet), Bohm scored and Stott scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI71101000010
COL0001000001

Period scoring

PHI won 4 · COL won 1

7
0

Inn 1

Marsh 3

1
0

Inn 2

Harper 1

1
0

Inn 3

Bohm 1

0
1

Inn 4

Castro 1

1
0

Inn 5

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
COL

Play-by-play · 566 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 10·COL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  3. B9

    Doyle struck out looking.

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  7. B9

    Zach Pop pitches to Brenton Doyle

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  9. B9

    Castro struck out looking.

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  14. B9

    Zach Pop pitches to Willi Castro

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  15. B9

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  16. B9

    Rumfield struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  22. B9

    Zach Pop pitches to TJ Rumfield

    · ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  23. B9

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  24. B9

    Julien walked.

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

  30. B9

    Zach Pop pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    PHI 10·COL 1

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

10

Runs

1

13

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

26

TB

6

3

HR

0

3

BB

2

9

K

15

13

LOB

14

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 10.5·PHI -186/COL +153

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

COL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    6.0± 2.4low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Trea TurnerPHI
    1.6± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Bryson StottPHI
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    33.7%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    31.9%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    33.3%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872