Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — May 1, 2026

FINAL+5STL

LAD

20-12

STL

19-13

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

28,308 attended

Line movement

66 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

STL no-vig %

39.2%

open 38.4% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
44.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.4%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.5%
P(STL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.77

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

STL vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.5± 3.1low

Hits

Tommy EdmanLAD
1.4± 1.8low
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.4± 1.3high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.2± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.8± 2.1low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

STL

.783

OPS

◀

.719

.727

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.328

5.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.61

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.25

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

LAD 2 · STL 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
STL	3	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.261	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.267	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
W. SmithC	.272	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. HernándezLF	.238	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. TuckerRF	.237	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
A. PagesCF	.319	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.288	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
M. RojasSS	.313	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. KimSS	.304	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	7	2	0	4	6

Player

.261

.267

.272

.238

.237

.319

.288

.313

.200

.304

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. SheehanSP	4.2	8	4	4	0	8	97
J. DreyerRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	21
E. HenriquezRP	1.0	2	3	2	1	0	24
K. HurtRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	8.0	12	7	6	1	11	154

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.246	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.246	5	2	2	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.279	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
J. WalkerRF	.308	4	2	4	2	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.224	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
M. WinnSS	.265	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.236	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
P. PagesC	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. Scott IICF	.171	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		36	7	12	6	2	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	5.2	5	2	2	2	4	96
G. SorianoRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	25
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
M. SvansonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	7	2	2	4	6	154

Team

LAD

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.