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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
MIN

MIN

0-1

1
2
BAL

BAL

1-0

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
42,134 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

56.6%

open 56.6%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.6%52.6%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 59.5%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

MIN 1 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000000101
BAL000000202

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-145

Close price

-145

Open no-vig

56.6%

Close no-vig

56.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -145

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Minnesota Twins, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Victor Caratini

Victor Caratini

C

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Tyler O'Neill

Tyler O'Neill

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN0-1
1
2
BAL1-0
MIN0-1·BAL1-0
MIN

MIN

0-1

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.867
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.597
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-33011000
SPRINT28.688
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.326
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-22000021
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000013
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-33010010
SPRINT24.22
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-22000000
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000002
K. ClemensK. Clemens1B
0-11000000
T. LarnachT. LarnachLF
0-11000001
Team5-2929151049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
5.1100270
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.2111100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0211000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100010
Team8.0522380
BAL

BAL

1-0

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000002
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000012
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-44020000
SPRINT26.632
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44110001
SPRINT25.310
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-22110010
SPRINT27.662
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-22001001
SPRINT28.175
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-22000011
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33011001
SPRINT28.175
Team5-2828252038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
7.0300450
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.0111010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100030
Team9.0511490

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    85 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.9 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      16%·78.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      12%·87.8 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.9 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Topa
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      61%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.7 mph·— whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      50%·78.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      30%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.3 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      30%·86.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      11%·82.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·77.5 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      47%·100.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      26%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Wells
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      29%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Mar 26MINMIN1@BALBAL2today
Mar 28MINMIN4@BALBAL1
Mar 29MINMIN6@BALBAL8

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Mar 26MINMIN1@BALBAL2today
Mar 28MINMIN4@BALBAL1
Mar 29MINMIN6@BALBAL8
Aug 10BALBAL@MINMINupcoming
Aug 11BALBAL@MINMINupcoming
Aug 12BALBAL@MINMINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+12045%
BALBAL-14559%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 6th Inning

MINMIN
V. Caratini

V. Caratini

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
T. O'Neill

T. O'Neill

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

BAL beat MIN 2-1.

Win probability

BAL vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 6th Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 53% WP

Keaschall · safe at first on fielding error by right fielder O'Neill, Keaschall safe at second on error.

BALTop 7th Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 62% WP

Lewis · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Caratini out at second.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 80% WP

O'Neill · singled to center, Basallo to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000000101
BAL00000020—2

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Cowser 1

1
0

Inn 8

Keaschall 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
BAL

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  2. T9

    Larnach struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  4. T9

    Outman to second on wild pitch by Helsley.

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  5. T9

    Outman to second on wild pitch by Helsley.

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  9. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  10. T9

    Larnach hit for Lewis

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  11. T9

    Outman ran for Caratini

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  12. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  13. T9

    Caratini singled to center.

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

    −3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  19. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Victor Caratini

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  20. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  21. T9

    Bell struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

    +5pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  27. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Josh Bell

    · ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  28. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

  29. T9

    Wallner struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

    +7pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 1·BAL 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

7

TB

6

0

HR

0

4

BB

3

9

K

8

18

LOB

7

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIN +120/BAL -145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 96
    94
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 96
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 95
    91
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    40
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872