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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4MIN
DET

DET

4-6

3
7
MIN

MIN

4-6

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
12,569 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

MIN no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%MIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

DET 3 · MIN 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0003000003
MIN003200027

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 4-0/VegasMIN -126

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Detroit Tigers, 7–3.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Zach McKinstry

Zach McKinstry

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Luke Keaschall

Luke Keaschall

2B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET4-6
3
7
MIN4-6
DET4-6·MIN4-6
DET

DET

4-6

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-22100031
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-44111001
SPRINT28.381
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000010
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-22000021
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33012011
SPRINT26.941
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.483
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-22000001
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-44000002
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-22000001
Team4-31313430711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
4.1755341
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
3.0211240
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2111220
Team8.010777101
MIN

MIN

4-6

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44210010
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-44220000
SPRINT26.632
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-33212121
SPRINT28.688
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000010
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
2-44023000
SPRINT24.22
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
2-55021003
SPRINT2622
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-22011021
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-44000004
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010000
K. ClemensK. Clemens1B
0-11000001
Team10-343471071710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
5.0332370
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0100010
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
0.2000110
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.2000300
C. LawerysonC. LawerysonRP
1.2000020
Team9.04327110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • C. Mize
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      33%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.3 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      2%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • D. Anderson
    49 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      33%·88.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      24%·79.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      65%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    101 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      55%·92.2 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.6 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      11%·77.9 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      11%·79.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      45%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      5%·79.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      71%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Laweryson
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      71%·91.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      14%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Orze
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FS
      58%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·92.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

3

Runs

7

1

Errors

2

Current series

MIN wins series 4-0

Apr 6DETDET3@MINMIN7today
Apr 7DETDET2@MINMIN4
Apr 8DETDET6@MINMIN8
Apr 9DETDET1@MINMIN3

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Apr 6DETDET3@MINMIN7today
Apr 7DETDET2@MINMIN4
Apr 8DETDET6@MINMIN8
Apr 9DETDET1@MINMIN3
Jun 9MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Jun 10MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Jun 11MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Aug 31DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 1DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 2DETDET@MINMINupcoming
Sep 7MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Sep 8MINMIN@DETDETupcoming
Sep 9MINMIN@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10449%
MINMIN-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 4th Inning

DETDET
Z. McKinstry

Z. McKinstry

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

MINMIN
L. Keaschall

L. Keaschall

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIN beat DET 7-3. Keaschall's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

MIN vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 4th Inning · 1-3
+15pp→ 39% WP

Keith · doubled to right, McGonigle scored, Torres to third.

DETTop 4th Inning · 3-3
+20pp→ 53% WP

McKinstry · singled to right, Keith and Torres scored, McKinstry to second, Torkelson to third.

MINBottom 4th Inning · 3-5
+22pp→ 80% WP

Keaschall · homered to left (367 feet), Larnach scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0003000003
MIN00320002—7

Period scoring

DET won 1 · MIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Caratini 1

3
2

Inn 4

McKinstry 2

Keaschall 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Caratini 2

0

Inn 9

DET
MIN

Play-by-play · 617 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  2. T9

    Torres grounded out to first.

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  5. T9

    Cody Laweryson pitches to Gleyber Torres

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  6. T9

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  7. T9

    McGonigle struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

    +0.5pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  11. T9

    Cody Laweryson pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  12. T9

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  13. T9

    Rogers grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

    +0.8pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  17. T9

    Cody Laweryson pitches to Jake Rogers

    ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  18. T9

    Martin in left field.

    DET 3·MIN 7

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 3·MIN 7

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 3·MIN 7

  21. B8

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  22. B8

    Wallner struck out looking.

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  27. B8

    Brant Hurter pitches to Matt Wallner

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  28. B8

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

  29. B8

    Caratini singled to center, Buxton scored and Martin scored, Keaschall to second.

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

    +4pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·MIN 7

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

3

Runs

7

4

Hits

10

1

Errors

2

7

TB

15

0

HR

1

7

BB

7

11

K

10

16

LOB

27

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 7·DET +104/MIN -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    46.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.0%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 97
    308
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    308
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    305
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 93
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 93
    27
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs