Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — May 1, 2026

FINAL+5MIL

MIL

17-14

WSH

15-18

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

19,764 attended

Line movement

63 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

WSH no-vig %

40.7%

open 41.7% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
43.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.5%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.7%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.8medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.6± 2.1medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.3± 1.2high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.2± 1.0low
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.7± 3.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.0low
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 2.9low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

WSH

.728

OPS

.718

▶

.744

.338

OBP

◀

.319

.321

5.25

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.32

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.59

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 6 · WSH 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	0	6
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MitchellCF	.238	6	1	1	0	0	0	3
B. Turang2B	.290	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. ContrerasC	.310	5	1	4	3	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
L. Rengifo3B	.191	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
T. BlackDH	.429	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.211	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. PerkinsCF	.109	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. HamiltonSS	.253	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.197	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. SanchezC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	6	12	5	0	5	7

Player

.238

.290

.310

.252

.191

.429

.211

.109

.253

.197

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MisiorowskiSP	5.1	0	0	0	2	8	85
A. AshbyRP	2.2	2	1	1	2	4	45
E. McGeeSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
Team	9.0	2	1	1	5	13	145

Player

J. MisiorowskiSP

5.1

A. AshbyRP

2.2

E. McGeeSP

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mead1B	.212	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. AbramsSS	.288	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. LileLF	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. House3B	.221	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
J. Vivas3B	.277	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. MillasC	.148	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. YoungCF	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.321	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.202	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	2	1	0	5	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	5.0	6	4	3	4	5	98
C. PerezRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	0	27
A. GranilloRP	1.0	3	2	0	1	1	40
P. SchultzRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	12	6	3	5	7	182

Team

MIL

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.