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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2COL
HOU

HOU

6-5

7
9
COL

COL

4-6

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
16,301 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 10.0TOTAL46.8%38.8%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

HOU 7 · COL 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2001011207
COL000081009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 92
    298
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 91
    136
    27(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 89
    2210
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 88
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 88
    181
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 87
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesCOL wins series 3-0/VegasHOU -149

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Houston Astros, 9–7.

COL +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Cam Smith

Cam Smith

RF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-5
7
9
COL4-6
HOU6-5·COL4-6
HOU

HOU

6-5

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-55120000
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000011
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
3-55231000
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44111010
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-55121000
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
2-44221111
SPRINT29.395
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-33002000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44011000
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
2-44020001
Team13-38387137133
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BoltonC. Bolton★SP
4.1322250
R. WeissR. WeissRP
2.2876241
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0100000
Team8.01298491
COL

COL

4-6

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-55122001
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-55010002
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-55111001
SPRINT27.148
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
3-55232100
SPRINT26.326
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
2-44122000
SPRINT24.85
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-33221010
SPRINT27.969
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-33100012
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-22000011
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-33111012
Team12-35359129149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. FeltnerR. Feltner★SP
5.1744211
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.2211010
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
0.1422000
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.2000110
Team9.01377331

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

12

7

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

COL wins series 3-0

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9today
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9today
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9
Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-14960%
COLCOL+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 5th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Smith

C. Smith

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Bolton

C. Bolton

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

COLCOL
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

R. Feltner

R. Feltner

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

COL beat HOU 9-7. COL outscored the other side 8-0 in the 5th inning.

Win probability

COL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 5th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 49% WP

Julien · singled to right, Castro scored and Doyle scored, Karros to third.

COLBottom 5th Inning · 3-6
+20pp→ 86% WP

Rumfield · tripled to left, Goodman scored and Johnston scored.

HOUTop 8th Inning · 7-9
+16pp→ 32% WP

Meyers · doubled to center, Diaz to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2001011207
COL00008100—9

Period scoring

HOU won 4 · COL won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Correa 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Smith 1

0
8

Inn 5

Julien 2

1
1

Inn 6

Loperfido 1

Johnston 1

1
0

Inn 7

Altuve 1

2
0

Inn 8

Loperfido 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
COL

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  2. T9

    Smith struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

    +0.7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  9. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Cam Smith

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  10. T9

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  11. T9

    Walker fouled out to first.

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

    +3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  15. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  16. T9

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  17. T9

    Correa flied out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

    +5pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  26. T9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Carlos Correa

    ·

    HOU 7·COL 9

  27. T9

    Castro at second base.

    HOU 7·COL 9

  28. T9

    Tovar at shortstop.

    HOU 7·COL 9

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 7·COL 9

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 7·COL 9

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

COL

Home

7

Runs

9

13

Hits

12

2

Errors

0

22

TB

18

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

3

K

9

16

LOB

15

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 10.5·HOU -149/COL +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

COL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    4.8± 2.8low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    36.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    35.2%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.2%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872