MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 8TH+2CLE

LAA

16-27

CLE

23-21

Live · model leanBot 8thPolls every 30s

65.5%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 60.1% CLE

LAA 2 · 4 CLE

CLE +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsCLE leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCLEBottom 6th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 89% WP
Schneemann · singled to center, Hoskins scored, Bazzana to second.
SwingLAATop 5th Inning · 2-3
+11pp→ 24% WP
Neto · homered to left (361 feet), Peraza scored.
SwingCLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 77% WP
Mart · ínez homered to left (378 feet).

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.63

R. Detmers

1-3 · 4.33 ERA

P. Messick

4-1 · 2.30 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CLE no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.3% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+38.9ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like CLE.

CLE's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+1.5

pp edge · CLE

+1.95

CLV pp · steam

Pass

59.2%

±6.1pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-2pp edge).

Edge

+0.6pp

-0.9pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

1.63

-2.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 1.5pp · CLE over LAA

▲
Venue split70% conf
CLE's venue form is 40.9pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.6pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
LAA is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+0.5pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
CLE sits near the model-market noise floor.
-0.3pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
CLE is 3-2 over its last 5; LAA is 1-4.
+0.3pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CLE has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.3pp
▲
Line steam66% conf
The market moved 0.9pp toward CLE since open.
+0.1pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.0pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAA

★ best

+630DraftKings

edge +27.0pp · implied 12.9%

CLE

no live price

Book	LAA	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+630★	-1300	+27.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CLE vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.3± 3.3low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.8± 3.1low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.5low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.3± 1.3high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.2± 0.7high
Jo AdellLAA
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Chase DeLauterCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Jo AdellLAA
1.9± 3.1high
Mike TroutLAA
1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

Chase DeLauterCLE
0.7± 0.9high
Rhys HoskinsCLE
0.6± 1.2high
Jo AdellLAA
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.1± 3.3low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.6± 3.1low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Wed, May 13

LAA

Angels

20-28

vs60.1%CLE

CLE★

Guardians

24-26

LAA 39.9%win prob60.1% CLE

CLE 1500 · LAA 1453Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
V. Grissom★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
SPRINT26.632
M. Trout★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.688
J. Adell★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Soler★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Peraza★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
Z. Neto★SS	2-2	2	1	2	2	1	1	0
SPRINT27.148
Y. Moncada★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Rivero★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Teodosio★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	4-25	25	2	4	2	1	4	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-4

0-4

0-3

1-3

2-2

0-2

1-1

0-3

0-1

Team

4-25

	Pitching
R. Detmers★SP	5.2	6	4	3	2	6	1
S. BachmanRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0

Team	7.0	6	4	3	2	7	1

Pitching

Player

R. Detmers★SP

5.2

S. BachmanRP

1.1

Team

7.0

	Batting
A. Martinez★LF	1-4	4	2	1	1	1	0	2
SPRINT27.765
J. Ramirez★3B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. DeLauter★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
R. Hoskins★1B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT24.96
D. Fry★RF	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. Bazzana★2B	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.662
D. Schneemann★CF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.457
A. Hedges★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rocchio★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2

Team	6-25	25	4	6	4	1	2	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

A. Martinez★LF

1-4