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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CLE
CLE

CLE

27-22

8
2
DET

DET

20-28

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
18,913 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

DET no-vig %

57.2%

open 60.0% · -2.8

+0.5-2.0DET SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL64.0%53.2%DET NO-VIG %May 17, 4 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 8 · DET 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0020230018
DET1000000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.81

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+139

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 4-0/VegasDET -162

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez

3B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE27-22
8
2
DET20-28
CLE27-22·DET20-28
CLE

CLE

27-22

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
3-44133110
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-44102012
SPRINT26.941
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-44012001
SPRINT24.96
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-55000003
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
2-55120000
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-11100030
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-33000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-22310021
SPRINT27.354
Team9-3333898177
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
7.1522241
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2000010
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.0000100
Team9.0522351
DET

DET

20-28

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-33010010
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33100011
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-22021010
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-44000000
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-33111100
SPRINT28.483
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000001
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
0-22000001
G. WorkmanG. Workman3B
0-11000001
Team5-2929252135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
5.0544430
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.1133200
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
2.2200020
E. De JesusE. De JesusRP
1.0111121
Team9.0988771

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    96 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.7 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      32%·87.7 mph·19% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.9 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·78.0 mph·— whiff
  • P. Pallette
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Festa
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      50%·82.6 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • F. Valdez
    89 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·78.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      25%·83.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Jesus
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      15%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      69%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 4-0

May 18CLECLE8@DETDET2today
May 19CLECLE4@DETDET3
May 20CLECLE3@DETDET2
May 21CLECLE3@DETDET1

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

May 18CLECLE8@DETDET2today
May 19CLECLE4@DETDET3
May 20CLECLE3@DETDET2
May 21CLECLE3@DETDET1
Jun 12DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 13DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Jun 14DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 11CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Aug 12CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Aug 13CLECLE@DETDETupcoming
Sep 4DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 5DETDET@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 6DETDET@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.4h

Moneyline

CLECLE+13443%
DETDET-16262%

↗14· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

CLECLE
J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

7.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 8-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Greene · doubled to right, Dingler scored.

CLETop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 43% WP

Rocchio · tripled to center.

CLETop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 55% WP

Hoskins · doubled to left, DeLauter scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0020230018
DET1000000102

Period scoring

CLE won 4 · DET won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

DeLauter 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

DeLauter 1

3
0

Inn 6

Ram 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Vierling 1

1
0

Inn 9

Ram 1

CLE
DET

Play-by-play · 571 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 8·DET 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  3. B9

    McKinstry grounded out to second.

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  11. B9

    Peyton Pallette pitches to Zach McKinstry

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  13. B9

    Torkelson grounded out to first, Greene to second, Dingler to third.

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  19. B9

    Peyton Pallette pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  20. B9

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  21. B9

    Greene hit by pitch, Dingler to second.

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  27. B9

    Peyton Pallette pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  28. B9

    ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  29. B9

    Dingler walked.

    ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    CLE 8·DET 2

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

8

Runs

2

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

16

TB

9

1

HR

1

7

BB

3

7

K

5

16

LOB

11

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8·CLE +134/DET -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 97
    147
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 96
    127
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    141
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    143
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    125
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    177
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    43.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.