Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LAA?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 22, 2026

FINAL+4LAA

TOR

10-14

LAA

12-14

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

25,306 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
44.7%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.9%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.5%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LAA?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.8low
Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.7± 1.8medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.1high
Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.4high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.1± 1.0low

Total bases

Donovan WaltonLAA
2.3± 1.9high
Zach NetoLAA
2.2± 2.5high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.2high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.9± 1.7low
Donovan WaltonLAA
0.8± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.8± 3.2low
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

LAA

.706

OPS

.718

▶

.719

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.319

4.05

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.53

4.11

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.67

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TOR 3 · LAA 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3
LAA	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.235	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.320	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.337	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.268	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Sosa2B	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.207	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. GimenezSS	.267	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. HeinemanC	.219	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.409	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	12	3	0	1	9

Player

.235

.320

.337

.268

.278

.263

.207

.267

.219

.176

.409

.161

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	5.0	7	3	3	2	3	79
T. NanceRP	1.1	1	2	2	1	2	24
B. FisherRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	20
J. MantiplyRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	23
Team	8.0	11	7	7	5	8	146

Player

5.0

1.1

0.1

1.1

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.238	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. TroutCF	.239	3	2	1	1	1	2	1
J. AdellRF	.269	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. SolerDH	.215	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Peraza2B	.294	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.239	4	2	2	4	1	0	1
V. Grissom2B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. O'HoppeC	.208	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. TeodosioLF	.160	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
J. LoweLF	.156	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Moncada3B	.176	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Frazier2B	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	11	7	2	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SorianoSP	5.0	7	0	0	0	4	84
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.1	1	2	2	1	1	21
C. SilsethRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	17
B. SuterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
J. RomanoRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	20
Team	9.0	12	3	3	1	9	154

Team

TOR

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAA vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.