Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MIN?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — May 1, 2026

FINAL+4TOR

TOR

15-17

MIN

14-19

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

19,762 attended

Line movement

68 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.4% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
43.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.3%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.4%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at MIN?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.4± 1.1high
Josh BellMIN
1.2± 0.7high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.8± 2.5high
Josh BellMIN
2.0± 1.5high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Josh BellMIN
0.9± 0.9high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 1.2high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.3± 3.6low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

MIN

.706

OPS

.718

▶

.731

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.86

4.10

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.75

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 7 · MIN 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	7
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.215	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.240	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.342	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.228	4	3	2	3	2	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.233	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Sosa2B	.281	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.500	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HeinemanC	.188	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.277	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	11	5	2	2	3

Player

.215

.240

.342

.228

.233

.281

.500

.257

.188

.125

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. CorbinSP	5.1	6	2	2	1	4	79
B. FisherRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	16
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	27
Team	9.0	10	3	3	2	10	140

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.260	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
A. MartinRF	.333	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.301	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. BellDH	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. Lewis3B	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. LeeSS	.252	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.129	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	10	3	1	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Woods RichardsonSP	4.2	9	6	4	1	2	88
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
E. OrzeRP	2.1	1	1	1	1	1	33
L. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	11	7	5	2	3	138

Team

TOR

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIN vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIN vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.