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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7CLE
CIN

CIN

24-23

3
10
CLE

CLE

26-22

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
27,388 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CLE no-vig %

60.2%

open 60.3% · -0.2

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL64.3%56.2%CLE NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CIN 3 · CLE 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0011000013
CLE2021102210

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.5pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

CIN

★ best
+167DraftKings

edge +13.5pp · implied 35.2%

CLE

no live price

BookCINCLEBest edge
DraftKings+167★-223+13.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -161

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Cincinnati Reds, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN24-23
3
10
CLE26-22
CIN24-23·CLE26-22
CIN

CIN

24-23

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-33000002
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-55121102
SPRINT2872
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-44000001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.483
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-33020010
SPRINT26.530
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
2-44021000
SPRINT25.411
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000002
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-22000002
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33010010
D. MyersD. MyersCF
1-22011001
SPRINT2744
B. DunnB. DunnRF
1-22110001
Team11-363631131212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
4.0755163
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0111111
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
2.0322211
T. AntoneT. AntoneRP
1.0122011
Team8.0121010496
CLE

CLE

26-22

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-55000003
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33212121
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
2-55222101
SPRINT26.941
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-55223202
SPRINT25.411
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
3-44030000
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-22100021
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44112101
SPRINT27.765
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44010000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-33221100
SPRINT27.354
Team12-3535101210649
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
6.0822071
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0000130
C. HeuerC. HeuerRP
2.0311120
Team9.011332121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Singer
    86 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      38%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      12%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·91.3 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    33 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      58%·99.0 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      27%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      76%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Antone
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      38%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.6 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    93 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.4 mph·28% whiff
    • CU
      28%·82.8 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      17%·88.2 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Heuer
    27 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      37%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      26%·87.2 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Herrin
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      42%·88.4 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      21%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

12

3

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 15CINCIN7@CLECLE6
May 16CINCIN4@CLECLE7
May 17CINCIN3@CLECLE10today

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

May 15CINCIN7@CLECLE6
May 16CINCIN4@CLECLE7
May 17CINCIN3@CLECLE10today
Jul 27CLECLE@CINCINupcoming
Jul 28CLECLE@CINCINupcoming
Jul 29CLECLE@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+13343%
CLECLE-16162%

↗1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 8 H

How it ended

CLE beat CIN 10-3.

Win probability

CLE vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 81% WP

DeLauter · homered to right (371 feet), Ramírez scored.

CLEBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+12pp→ 88% WP

Manzardo · homered to right (382 feet), DeLauter scored.

CINTop 4th Inning · 2-4
+8pp→ 28% WP

Lowe · singled to left, Steer scored, Stewart to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0011000013
CLE20211022—10

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · CLE won 5

0
2

Inn 1

DeLauter 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
2

Inn 3

Cruz 1

Manzardo 2

1
1

Inn 4

Lowe 1

Rocchio 1

0
1

Inn 5

Manzardo 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Mart 2

0
2

Inn 8

Ram 2

1

Inn 9

Myers 1

CIN
CLE

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  2. T9

    De La Cruz flied out to left.

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  4. T9

    Codi Heuer pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  5. T9

    ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  6. T9

    Myers reached on infield single to third, Dunn scored.

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  11. T9

    Codi Heuer pitches to Dane Myers

    · ·

    CIN 3·CLE 10

  12. T9

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  13. T9

    McLain doubled to right, Dunn to third, McLain out stretching at second.

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  19. T9

    Codi Heuer pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  20. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  21. T9

    Dunn singled to center.

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  24. T9

    Codi Heuer pitches to Blake Dunn

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  25. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  26. T9

    Stephenson grounded out to third.

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  29. T9

    Codi Heuer pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    CIN 2·CLE 10

  30. T9

    Martínez in right field.

    CIN 2·CLE 10

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

3

Runs

10

11

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

17

TB

31

1

HR

6

2

BB

4

12

K

9

15

LOB

10

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +133/CLE -161

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 98
    179
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    58
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    1611
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    246
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    58
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 94
    174
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.36

CLV pp

Open price

+141

Close price

+133

Open no-vig

39.7%

Close no-vig

41.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

CLE vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    52.9%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.