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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PIT
PIT

PIT

16-11

6
3
MIL

MIL

13-13

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
40,408 attended

Line movement

39 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

55.5%

open 55.5%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.5%51.5%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 55.5%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 6 · MIL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
PIT00020100036
MIL00020100003

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 29, 26sim 99
    296
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 98
    21
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 97
    295
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 97
    248
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    118
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    62
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 25·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -138

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 6–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

3B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

0.800OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
PIT16-11
6
3
MIL13-13
PIT16-11·MIL13-13
PIT

PIT

16-11

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-55000004
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44010002
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-33211012
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT26.735
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
3-55131001
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44012000
SPRINT24.85
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-44000002
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
2-44021002
SPRINT29.899
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44100000
Team9-37376950215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
5.0533260
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000000
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0000110
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0100110
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000010
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0000020
Team10.06334110
MIL

MIL

13-13

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44010012
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-55000001
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-55220002
SPRINT2744
T. BlackT. Black★DH
2-55120002
SPRINT2872
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-44011000
SPRINT29.798
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-00002020
SPRINT28.790
G. JonesG. Jones★LF
0-44000002
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22000001
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000010
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-22000001
Team6-34343630411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
6.0633190
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.0100040
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000010
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.2131110
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.1100000
Team10.09642150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Keller
    93 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.3 mph·24% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      80%·97.2 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      10%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·90.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      47%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      40%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      27%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    91 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      62%·100.5 mph·58% whiff
    • SL
      29%·96.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      9%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    21 pitches·62% CSW
    • SI
      48%·98.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      10%·93.2 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      69%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      100%·99.3 mph·20% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      75%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

6

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 24PITPIT6@MILMIL0
Apr 25PITPIT6@MILMIL3today
Apr 26PITPIT0@MILMIL5

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Apr 24PITPIT6@MILMIL0
Apr 25PITPIT6@MILMIL3today
Apr 26PITPIT0@MILMIL5
Jul 10MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 11MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 12MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Aug 3PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 4PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 5PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 6PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Sep 15MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 16MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 17MILMIL@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+11547%
MILMIL-13858%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 39 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 10th Inning

PITPIT
N. Gonzales

N. Gonzales

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 2 R · 0.800 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat MIL 6-3. Gonzales's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

MIL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 68% WP

Griffin · singled to right, Gonzales scored, Mangum to third.

PITTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+12pp→ 67% WP

Horwitz · hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Hearn scored, Gonzales to third.

PITTop 10th Inning · 6-3
+30pp→ 90% WP

Gonzales · singled to left, Reynolds scored on fielding error by left fielder Jones and Yorke scored on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
PIT00020100036
MIL00020100003

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · MIL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
2

Inn 4

Horwitz 1

Mitchell 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Horwitz 1

Frelick 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

3
0

Inn 10

Gonzales 2

PIT
MIL

Play-by-play · 609 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  2. B10

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  3. B10

    Black struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

    −2pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  8. B10

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Tyler Black

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  9. B10

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  10. B10

    Bauers struck out looking.

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

    −4pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  12. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  13. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  14. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  15. B10

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Jake Bauers

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  16. B10

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  17. B10

    Contreras grounded out to third.

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

    −5pp

  18. B10

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  19. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  20. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  21. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  22. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  23. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  24. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  25. B10

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to William Contreras

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  26. B10

    Ramírez relieved Soto

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  27. B10

    Gonzales at second base.

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  28. B10

    Yorke at third base.

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  29. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    PIT 6·MIL 3

  30. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    PIT 6·MIL 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

6

Runs

3

9

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

9

TB

8

0

HR

0

2

BB

4

15

K

11

18

LOB

14

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·PIT +115/MIL -138

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586