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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9ATL
ATL

ATL

13-7

9
0
PHI

PHI

8-11

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,048 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

PHI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PHI no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0PHI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL52.3%44.3%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 50.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 9 · PHI 0 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL2410000119
PHI0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0/VegasATL -118

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 9–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL13-7
9
0
PHI8-11
ATL13-7·PHI8-11
ATL

ATL

13-7

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44210010
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-55120001
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-22111030
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-55224203
SPRINT27.765
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-55001000
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33011001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-55111100
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
3-44231100
SPRINT27.148
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
1-22010000
Team12-38389129445
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
6.0400240
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
3.0200110
Team9.0600350
PHI

PHI

8-11

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010010
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
3-44030000
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-22000020
SPRINT26.735
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44020000
SPRINT28.381
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-22000000
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-44000001
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000000
Team6-3333060035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
4.0777342
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
2.0100000
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100110
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0211001
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
1.0111001
Team9.01299454

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • M. Perez
    94 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      34%·90.8 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      23%·83.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      20%·86.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      14%·77.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    52 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      25%·83.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.1 mph·50% whiff

PHI

  • T. Walker
    89 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      31%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·87.5 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·75.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      78%·94.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Shugart
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      27%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

6

9

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Apr 17ATLATL9@PHIPHI0today
Apr 18ATLATL3@PHIPHI1
Apr 19ATLATL4@PHIPHI2

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Apr 17ATLATL9@PHIPHI0today
Apr 18ATLATL3@PHIPHI1
Apr 19ATLATL4@PHIPHI2
Apr 24PHIPHI3@ATLATL5
Apr 25PHIPHI8@ATLATL5
Apr 26PHIPHI2@ATLATL6
Sep 4ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 5ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 6ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 7ATLATL@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 11PHIPHI@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 12PHIPHI@ATLATLupcoming
Sep 13PHIPHI@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-11854%
PHIPHI-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat PHI 9-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 74% WP

Yastrzemski · reached on infield single to second, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.

ATLBottom 1st Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 69% WP

Sosa · struck out swinging.

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 6-0
+12pp→ 94% WP

Riley · homered to right center (380 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL2410000119
PHI0000000000

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

9

Runs

0

12

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

24

TB

8

4

HR

0

4

BB

3

5

K

5

20

LOB

19

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 9.5·ATL -118/PHI -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

PHI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

ATL won 5 · PHI won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Albies 1

4
0

Inn 2

Riley 3

1
0

Inn 3

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

II 1

1
0

Inn 9

Riley 1

ATL
PHI

Play-by-play · 597 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  3. B9

    Schwarber grounded out to second.

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  8. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  9. B9

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  10. B9

    Turner singled to left.

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  20. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Trea Turner

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  21. B9

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  22. B9

    Kemp flied out to right.

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  25. B9

    Jose Suarez pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  26. B9

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  27. B9

    Moore lined out to center.

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 9·PHI 0

Player projections

PHI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 99
    143
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    24
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    133
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    138
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    132
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    171
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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