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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SD
SD

SD

28-18

8
3
SEA

SEA

22-26

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
40,365 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%54.4%SEA NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 8 · SEA 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD1000151008
SEA0000030003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.8pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

SD

★ best
-149DraftKings

edge +4.8pp · implied 56.3%

SEA

no live price

BookSDSEABest edge
DraftKings-149★+115+4.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -153

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 8–3.

SD +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Gavin Sheets

Gavin Sheets

1B

4.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Luke Raley

Luke Raley

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD28-18
8
3
SEA22-26
SD28-18·SEA22-26
SD

SD

28-18

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55110001
SPRINT28.483
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-55110001
SPRINT26.530
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
3-33234220
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-55110001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-33100012
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44111000
SPRINT28.688
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33100012
T. FranceT. France★1B
3-44033000
SPRINT24.74
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000003
Team10-363681082410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
5.0133330
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
2.0000220
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
2.0000030
Team9.0133580
SEA

SEA

22-26

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-11000000
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-33100010
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-33001010
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33001001
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.175
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-44000002
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33000011
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-44000003
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
0-22100010
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
0-11100010
SPRINT27.560
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11001000
Team1-2727313058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
5.2666262
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
0.1111110
A. HoppeA. HoppeRP
1.2211010
D. GonzalezD. GonzalezSP
1.1100120
Team9.010884102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • L. Giolito
    78 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      55%·90.4 mph·24% whiff
    • CH
      29%·78.5 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      12%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·75.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    33 pitches·39% CSW
    • FS
      33%·82.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      30%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    28 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      36%·89.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·86.9 mph·100% whiff

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    98 pitches·28% CSW
    • ST
      34%·87.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.6 mph·18% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      4%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Hoppe
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      54%·88.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      27%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Gonzalez
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      44%·86.3 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      32%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Criswell
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      37%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

1

8

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

May 16SDSD2@SEASEA0
May 16SDSD7@SEASEA4
May 17SDSD8@SEASEA3today

Season series

SD wins series 6-0

Apr 15SEASEA1@SDSD4
Apr 16SEASEA6@SDSD7
Apr 17SEASEA2@SDSD5
May 16SDSD2@SEASEA0
May 16SDSD7@SEASEA4
May 17SDSD8@SEASEA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+12644%
SEASEA-15360%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 5th Inning

SDSD
G. Sheets

G. Sheets

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-3 · 2 HR · 4.000 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
L. Raley

L. Raley

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat SEA 8-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 46% WP

Sheets · homered to right (400 feet).

SDTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 73% WP

France · singled to right, Bogaerts scored.

SDTop 6th Inning · 4-0
+11pp→ 92% WP

Sheets · homered to right (404 feet), Andujar scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD1000151008
SEA0000030003

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

8

Runs

3

10

Hits

1

2

Errors

0

20

TB

1

2

HR

0

4

BB

5

10

K

8

11

LOB

8

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 7·SD +126/SEA -153

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

SEA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SD won 4 · SEA won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

France 1

5
3

Inn 6

Sheets 2

Naylor 1

1
0

Inn 7

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
SEA

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 8·SEA 3

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  3. B9

    Garver struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  9. B9

    Bradgley Rodriguez pitches to Mitch Garver

    · ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  10. B9

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  11. B9

    Canzone struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  17. B9

    Bradgley Rodriguez pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  18. B9

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  19. B9

    Young struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

    −0.5pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  26. B9

    Bradgley Rodriguez pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

  27. B9

    Song at third base.

    SD 8·SEA 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 8·SEA 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 8·SEA 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    SD 8·SEA 3

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.4%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 98
    163
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 97
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    174
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    87
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    83
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 94
    308
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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