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FINAL+3MIA
CIN

CIN

8-4

4
7
MIA

MIA

7-5

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
8,639 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 6 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

CIN 4 · MIA 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN2000200004
MIA222000107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasMIA -131

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Cincinnati Reds, 7–4.

MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Connor Norby

Connor Norby

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN8-4
4
7
MIA7-5
CIN8-4·MIA7-5
CIN

CIN

8-4

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
3-55030000
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44100001
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33100011
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-44222100
SPRINT26.530
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-44021001
SPRINT25.818
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-44000003
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-33010011
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000002
N. LoweN. LoweDH
0-11000001
Team9-35354931211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
2.21065031
S. MollS. MollRP
2.1000020
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
2.0111201
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0100010
Team8.01276262
MIA

MIA

7-5

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-44121000
SPRINT27.765
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44121011
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44111000
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-44121000
SPRINT25.614
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT2872
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-33000001
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
2-44222101
SPRINT27.457
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
1-22010010
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-44000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
Team12-34347127226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.0642261
R. GustoR. GustoSP
1.0000010
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0100000
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0000020
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.0200020
Team9.09422111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Singer
    73 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      49%·90.5 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      26%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      8%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      1%·87.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Phillips
    39 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      49%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      46%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Moll
    28 pitches·39% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      36%·91.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      60%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      48%·98.3 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.6 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.0 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      28%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Gusto
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

12

4

Runs

7

2

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 6CINCIN2@MIAMIA0
Apr 7CINCIN6@MIAMIA3
Apr 8CINCIN4@MIAMIA7today
Apr 9CINCIN1@MIAMIA8

Season series

CIN leads series 2-1

Apr 6CINCIN2@MIAMIA0
Apr 7CINCIN6@MIAMIA3
Apr 8CINCIN4@MIAMIA7today
Apr 9CINCIN1@MIAMIA8
Aug 14MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming
Aug 15MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming
Aug 16MIAMIA@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+10948%
MIAMIA-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 2nd Inning

CINCIN
S. Stewart

S. Stewart

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 10 H

MIAMIA
C. Norby

C. Norby

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIA beat CIN 7-4.

Win probability

MIA vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 62% WP

Suárez doubled to right, Stewart scored.

MIABottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 54% WP

Ram · írez doubled to left, Edwards scored.

CINTop 2nd Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 46% WP

Stephenson · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN2000200004
MIA22200010—7

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · MIA won 3

2
2

Inn 1

Cruz 1

Ram 1

0
2

Inn 2

Marsee 1

0
2

Inn 3

Conine 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Stewart 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Norby 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CIN
MIA

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  2. T9

    McLain struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  8. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  9. T9

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  10. T9

    Friedl grounded out to first, Marte to second, Stephenson to third.

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

    +4pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  14. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to TJ Friedl

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  15. T9

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  16. T9

    Lowe struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

    +5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  21. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  22. T9

    Lowe hit for Hayes

    ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  23. T9

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  24. T9

    Marte reached on infield single to third, Stephenson to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

    −7pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  28. T9

    Michael Petersen pitches to Noelvi Marte

    · ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  29. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

  30. T9

    Stephenson reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    CIN 4·MIA 7

    −3pp

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

4

Runs

7

9

Hits

12

2

Errors

1

14

TB

19

1

HR

2

2

BB

2

11

K

6

18

LOB

16

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8·CIN +109/MIA -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    4.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.2%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.3%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    22
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 96
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 95
    171
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    176
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    258
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs