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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TB
TB

TB

25-12

8
4
BOS

BOS

16-22

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
33,961 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.2% · +0.4

+2.0-0.5BOS SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL56.6%48.2%BOS NO-VIG %May 6, 5 PMMay 7, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 8 · BOS 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0300020128
BOS0300000104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, May 7·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -121

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 8–4.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

3

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB25-12
8
4
BOS16-22
TB25-12·BOS16-22
TB

TB

25-12

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44021001
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
1-33010000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44222110
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-55000001
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
2-44220010
SPRINT2993
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-44221010
SPRINT28.381
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-22110000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44011000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-33000011
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
0-11000000
C. SimpsonC. SimpsonLF
2-22023000
SPRINT29.496
Team13-36368138143
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. JaxG. Jax★RP
4.0432130
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
2.0000010
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0100000
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0211010
C. SulserC. SulserRP
1.0000010
Team9.0743160
BOS

BOS

16-22

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44010001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT2872
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-33100010
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.790
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-44100000
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-33011001
SPRINT27.354
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33011000
Team7-3232474016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BennettJ. Bennett★SP
5.1644210
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
0.2000000
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
3.0533121
Team9.01388431

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • G. Jax
    59 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      24%·88.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • H. Bigge
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      15%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      41%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      41%·92.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      12%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      83%·91.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.3 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • J. Bennett
    86 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.1 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.4 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Watson
    51 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      27%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      8%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      45%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      67%·90.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

7

8

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

May 7TBTB8@BOSBOS4today
May 8TBTB0@BOSBOS2
May 9TBTB0@BOSBOS0
May 10TBTB4@BOSBOS1

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

May 7TBTB8@BOSBOS4today
May 8TBTB0@BOSBOS2
May 9TBTB0@BOSBOS0
May 10TBTB4@BOSBOS1
Jun 8BOSBOS@TBTBupcoming
Jun 9BOSBOS@TBTBupcoming
Jun 10BOSBOS@TBTBupcoming
Jul 17TBTB@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 17TBTB@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 18TBTB@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 19TBTB@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 18BOSBOS@TBTBupcoming
Sep 19BOSBOS@TBTBupcoming
Sep 20BOSBOS@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+10050%
BOSBOS-12155%

↘2· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 6th Inning

TBTB
C. Simpson

C. Simpson

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

G. Jax

G. Jax

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

J. Bennett

J. Bennett

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat BOS 8-4. Simpson's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 68% WP

Williamson · singled to right, DeLuca scored.

BOSBottom 2nd Inning · 3-2
+11pp→ 44% WP

Wong · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yoshida scored, Mayer to second, Mayer safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Walls.

TBTop 6th Inning · 5-3
+19pp→ 79% WP

Simpson · singled to center, Caminero scored and DeLuca scored, Williamson to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0300020128
BOS0300000104

Period scoring

TB won 2 · BOS won 0

0
0

Inn 1

3
3

Inn 2

Williamson 1

Rafaela 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Simpson 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Simpson 1

Abreu 1

2
0

Inn 9

Caminero 2

TB
BOS

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 8·BOS 4

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  3. B9

    Mayer grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  12. B9

    Cole Sulser pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  13. B9

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  14. B9

    Rafaela struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  21. B9

    Cole Sulser pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  22. B9

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  23. B9

    Yoshida grounded out to first.

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

    −1pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  27. B9

    Cole Sulser pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  28. B9

    Sulser relieved Cleavinger

    ·

    TB 8·BOS 4

  29. B9

    Palacios as designated hitter.

    TB 8·BOS 4

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 8·BOS 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

8

Runs

4

13

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

19

TB

8

1

HR

0

4

BB

1

3

K

6

13

LOB

8

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·TB +100/BOS -121

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.43

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    46.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.5%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 95
    163
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    25
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    87
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    258
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 93
    88
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs