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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9LAD
LAD

LAD

29-18

10
1
LAA

LAA

16-31

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,809 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

43.7%

open 42.8% · +0.9

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL47.7%38.8%LAA NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 10 · LAA 1 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD02050000310
LAA0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.5pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

LAA

★ best
+329DraftKings

edge +16.5pp · implied 21.9%

BookLADLAABest edge
DraftKings-497+329★+16.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -149

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 10–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Hyeseong Kim

Hyeseong Kim

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD29-18
10
1
LAA16-31
LAD29-18·LAA16-31
LAD

LAD

29-18

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
3-55132002
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44100012
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-55112000
SPRINT28.175
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
3-55233001
SPRINT26.123
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44111012
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44100013
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-22000020
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33111000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-33221011
SPRINT28.381
Team11-35351011100611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
7.0411080
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000020
C. McDermottC. McDermottSP
1.0100010
Team9.05110110
LAA

LAA

16-31

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-44000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-33011001
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000001
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.251
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000002
J. SiriJ. SiriLF
0-11000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11000001
Team5-31311510011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. RodriguezG. Rodriguez★SP
3.2777440
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
0.1100000
SPRINT27.148
M. FarrisM. FarrisRP
2.0000130
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0000020
R. JohnsonR. JohnsonSP
2.0333120
Team9.01110106110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • R. Sasaki
    91 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.6 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.1 mph·58% whiff
    • FS
      20%·88.4 mph·31% whiff
    • FO
      12%·86.2 mph·20% whiff
  • C. McDermott
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      63%·89.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.9 mph·100% whiff

LAA

  • G. Rodriguez
    79 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.3 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      25%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.2 mph·45% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Johnson
    35 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      40%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      34%·88.0 mph·10% whiff
    • FS
      23%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      3%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Farris
    27 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      41%·79.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      37%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      4%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Yates
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      60%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      30%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·75.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Fermin
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      80%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·92.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

10

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1today

Season series

LAD lead series 3-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1today
Jun 6LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-14960%
LAALAA+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 4th Inning

LADLAD
H. Kim

H. Kim

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H

LAALAA
N. Schanuel

N. Schanuel

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

G. Rodriguez

G. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat LAA 10-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 43% WP

Freeman · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Ohtani out at second.

LADTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 79% WP

Kim · singled to right, Muncy scored, Rushing to third.

LADTop 4th Inning · 4-0
+10pp→ 92% WP

Ohtani · singled to right, Rojas scored and T. Hernández scored, Kim to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD02050000310
LAA0001000001

Period scoring

LAD won 3 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Rojas 1

0
0

Inn 3

5
1

Inn 4

Ohtani 2

Moncada 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Tucker 2

LAD
LAA

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  3. B9

    Soler fouled out to first.

    · ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  5. B9

    Chayce McDermott pitches to Jorge Soler

    · ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  6. B9

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  7. B9

    Schanuel singled to left.

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  14. B9

    Chayce McDermott pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  15. B9

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  16. B9

    Trout flied out to right.

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  20. B9

    Chayce McDermott pitches to Mike Trout

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  21. B9

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  22. B9

    Neto struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  29. B9

    Chayce McDermott pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

  30. B9

    McDermott relieved Vesia

    ·

    LAD 10·LAA 1

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

10

Runs

1

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

12

TB

6

0

HR

0

6

BB

0

11

K

11

14

LOB

6

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAD -149/LAA +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

LAA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    34.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    31.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    34.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 92
    196
    3(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 92
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 90
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 89
    1915
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 88
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 87
    1511
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175