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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ATL
ATL

ATL

25-10

11
6
COL

COL

14-21

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
32,994 attended

Line movement

129 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.5 · -0.5

COL no-vig %

43.7%

open 39.2% · +4.5

+2.0-0.5COL SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 9.0TOTAL47.7%35.2%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.4%May 2, 5 PMMay 24, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 11 · COL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL03003200311
COL1012100106

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-175

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 95
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 94
    2510
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 93
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 92
    1915
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 90
    253
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 88
    1912
    27(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0/VegasATL -143

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 11–6.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Jonah Heim

Jonah Heim

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak

LF

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL25-10
11
6
COL14-21
ATL25-10·COL14-21
ATL

ATL

25-10

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000021
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-55120001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-33321020
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-44221011
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
1-55011003
E. WhiteE. White★CF
2-44121011
SPRINT30.499+
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
2-44225100
SPRINT25.18
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
2-55122101
SPRINT3099
J. AzocarJ. Azocar★RF
0-22000001
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
1-33110000
Team14-3838111411269
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
3.1433561
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.0322021
D. FuentesD. FuentesRP
0.2000000
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000020
R. LopezR. LopezRP
1.0100110
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0111021
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0200000
Team9.011666133
COL

COL

14-21

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-44100014
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
2-44223211
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-55000003
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
3-55132101
SPRINT24.85
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-33120021
SPRINT26.326
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-55020002
SPRINT27.969
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-33000011
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-33011000
SPRINT27.867
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-33110010
Team11-353561163613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. FreelandK. Freeland★SP
4.1866372
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
2.2322110
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.0000110
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.0333100
Team9.0141111692

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    87 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      49%·94.6 mph·4% whiff
    • CU
      31%·78.8 mph·78% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.0 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Suarez
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      38%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lopez
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·72.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      55%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      27%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      67%·83.3 mph·83% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Fuentes
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      88%·96.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • K. Freeland
    98 pitches·29% CSW
    • KC
      28%·82.1 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.2 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Senzatela
    42 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      33%·92.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      2%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Herget
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      43%·77.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      65%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.5 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

11

11

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

May 2ATLATL8@COLCOL6
May 3ATLATL9@COLCOL1
May 3ATLATL11@COLCOL6today

Season series

ATL leads series 3-0

May 2ATLATL8@COLCOL6
May 3ATLATL9@COLCOL1
May 3ATLATL11@COLCOL6today
Aug 28COLCOL@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 29COLCOL@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 30COLCOL@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATLATL-14359%
COLCOL+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 129 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATLATL
J. Heim

J. Heim

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

COLCOL
M. Moniak

M. Moniak

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat COL 11-6. Heim's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 63% WP

Heim · homered to center (425 feet), Olson scored.

COLBottom 3rd Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 38% WP

Rumfield · homered to right center (423 feet).

COLBottom 4th Inning · 3-4
+17pp→ 60% WP

Moniak · homered to right (422 feet), McCarthy scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL03003200311
COL1012100106

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · COL won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Rumfield 1

3
0

Inn 2

Heim 2

0
1

Inn 3

Rumfield 1

0
2

Inn 4

Moniak 2

3
1

Inn 5

Riley 1

Tovar 1

2
0

Inn 6

Albies 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Moniak 1

3
0

Inn 9

Heim 2

ATL
COL

Play-by-play · 661 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 11·COL 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  3. B9

    Sullivan lined out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  7. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Brett Sullivan

    · ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  8. B9

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  9. B9

    Castro singled to center.

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  12. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  13. B9

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  14. B9

    Johnston singled to right, Johnston out stretching at second.

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  22. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Troy Johnston

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  23. B9

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  24. B9

    Rumfield grounded out to catcher.

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  29. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

  30. B9

    R. Suarez relieved Kinley

    ·

    ATL 11·COL 6

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

COL

Home

11

Runs

6

14

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

25

TB

22

2

HR

3

6

BB

6

9

K

13

17

LOB

19

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 10·ATL -143/COL +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

COL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Bryce ElderATL
    4.9± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Tanner GordonCOL
    2.6± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    33.7%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    29.2%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    32.5%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872