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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+13LAD
LAD

LAD

28-18

15
2
LAA

LAA

16-30

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,841 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

+2.0-0.5LAA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%39.7%LAA NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 15 · LAA 2 (by 13)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD10000504515
LAA0000020002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.7pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

LAA

★ best
+178DraftKings

edge +4.7pp · implied 33.8%

BookLADLAABest edge
DraftKings-239+178★+4.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -136

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 15–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler

DH

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD28-18
15
2
LAA16-30
LAD28-18·LAA16-30
LAD

LAD

28-18

15
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-44225020
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-44221110
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44100011
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-22211011
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44211012
SPRINT28.175
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44311011
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44112001
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-44112011
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44100012
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
1-11010000
D. RushingD. RushingC
0-11000000
Team10-3636151013199
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
6.0722150
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0000110
W. MillsW. MillsRP
1.0000200
C. BarnesC. BarnesRP
1.0100010
Team9.0822470
LAA

LAA

16-30

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
1-55010000
SPRINT26.632
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-44000011
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-55110002
SPRINT27.148
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
2-33120011
SPRINT2622
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-22012021
SPRINT27.867
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-44000001
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000000
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
1-22010000
J. LoweJ. LoweLF
1-22010001
Team8-3535282047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
5.1166660
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.2100000
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0100010
SPRINT27.148
A. ManoahA. ManoahSP
1.1698321
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
0.2100000
SPRINT26.225
Team9.0101514991

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAA

  • J. Fermin
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      80%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·92.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

15

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2today
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

May 16LADLAD6@LAALAA0
May 17LADLAD15@LAALAA2today
May 17LADLAD10@LAALAA1
Jun 6LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming
Jun 7LAALAA@LADLADupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-13658%
LAALAA+11347%

↗6· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 4th Inning

LADLAD
S. Espinal

S. Espinal

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
J. Soler

J. Soler

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 1 H · 6 BB

How it ended

LAD beat LAA 15-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 72% WP

Betts · singled to left, Ohtani to third.

LAABottom 4th Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 40% WP

Soler · doubled to left.

LADTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 88% WP

Pages · walked, Betts scored, Smith to second, Freeman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD10000504515
LAA0000020002

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · LAA won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

5
2

Inn 6

Call 2

Adell 2

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Angels 3

5
0

Inn 9

Ohtani 3

LAD
LAA

Play-by-play · 658 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  3. B9

    Neto struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  9. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Zach Neto

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  10. B9

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  11. B9

    Trout flied out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  15. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  16. B9

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  17. B9

    Grissom lined out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  21. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Vaughn Grissom

    · ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  22. B9

    ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  23. B9

    Lowe singled to right.

    ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  25. B9

    Charlie Barnes pitches to Josh Lowe

    ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  26. B9

    Barnes relieved Mills

    ·

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  27. B9

    Kim at shortstop.

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  28. B9

    Rushing at first base.

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  29. B9

    Espinal at second base.

    LAD 15·LAA 2

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 15·LAA 2

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

15

Runs

2

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

16

TB

11

1

HR

0

9

BB

4

9

K

7

18

LOB

25

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAD -136/LAA +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 17 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    36.8%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    37.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.7%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 92
    1511
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 89
    1910
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 88
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 88
    196
    3(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 87
    154
    20(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 87
    2510
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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