Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at COL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — May 1, 2026

FINAL+2ATL

ATL

23-10

COL

14-19

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

23,548 attended

Line movement

70 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

39.7%

open 37.8% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
33.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
31.7%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
34.4%
P(COL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.87

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-186

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at COL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

COL vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Bryce ElderATL
4.9± 2.9medium
Grant HolmesATL
4.4± 2.5medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

TJ RumfieldCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.9± 3.8high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

TJ RumfieldCOL
0.9± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
0.8± 2.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.7± 2.0low

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

COL

.734

OPS

.719

.733

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.91

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

3.40

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.47

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 8 · COL 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	2	8
COL	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.248	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
D. BaldwinC	.299	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Albies2B	.320	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. Olson1B	.297	3	2	1	1	1	2	0
M. DubonSS	.281	5	1	2	3	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.202	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.186	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.200	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. MateoSS	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.204	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. FarmerDH	.333	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.324	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. SuarezRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	8	9	8	2	5	6

Player

.248

.299

.320

.297

.281

.202

.186

.200

.242

.204

.333

.324

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	5.0	7	6	5	3	4	87
A. MolinaRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	26
D. FuentesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	6	5	4	5	145

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Julien2B	.289	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
M. MoniakLF	.319	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.257	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.263	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.293	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
T. JohnstonRF	.320	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
W. Castro2B	.235	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.197	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. McCarthyCF	.259	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BeckLF	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DoyleCF	.224	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	8	5	1	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuintanaSP	6.0	5	1	1	0	3	85
Z. AgnosRP	1.1	1	3	2	2	1	25
J. HillRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	19
J. MejiaRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	20
Team	9.0	9	8	7	5	6	149

Team

ATL

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

COL vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.