• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5COL
SD

SD

16-8

3
8
COL

COL

10-15

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
18,114 attended

Line movement

30 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 12.0

COL no-vig %

40.7%

open 40.7%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 12.5O/U 11.5TOTAL44.7%36.7%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.4%May 2, 9 AMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

SD 3 · COL 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD1000001013
COL040101118

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-163

Close price

-163

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasSD -163

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off San Diego Padres, 8–3.

COL +1.5 cashed (SD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 12.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Campusano

Luis Campusano

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD16-8
3
8
COL10-15
SD16-8·COL10-15
SD

SD

16-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44100012
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-44000002
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-33011010
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-44000001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000001
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
3-44231100
SPRINT25.818
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33001010
Team7-3434373137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
2.2844320
K. HartK. HartRP
2.1211000
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.1422130
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.2111011
Team8.01588461
COL

COL

10-15

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-33111011
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
2-44121000
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
3-44231111
SPRINT27.148
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-55011000
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
2-55022000
SPRINT24.85
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-44110002
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-33110010
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-33121010
SPRINT27.969
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
2-44121000
SPRINT29.698
E. TovarE. TovarSS
0-11000001
J. BeckJ. BeckLF
0-11000000
B. DoyleB. DoyleCF
0-11000001
Team15-38388158146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
5.2511140
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.1111131
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
2.0110100
Team9.0732371

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

15

3

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 22SDSD1@COLCOL0
Apr 23SDSD3@COLCOL8today
Apr 23SDSD10@COLCOL8

Season series

SD leads series 5-1

Apr 10COLCOL3@SDSD7
Apr 11COLCOL2@SDSD5
Apr 12COLCOL5@SDSD9
Apr 12COLCOL2@SDSD7
Apr 22SDSD1@COLCOL0
Apr 23SDSD3@COLCOL8today
Apr 23SDSD10@COLCOL8
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Sep 15SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 16SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

12.0

High-scoring · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-16362%
COLCOL+13543%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

12.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SDSD
L. Campusano

L. Campusano

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

COL beat SD 8-3.

Win probability

COL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 61% WP

Merrill · singled to center, Laureano scored.

COLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 64% WP

Julien · singled to center, Castro scored, McCarthy to third.

COLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-4
+7pp→ 82% WP

Freeman · reached on infield single to shortstop, Julien scored, Goodman to second, Moniak to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD1000001013
COL04010111—8

Period scoring

SD won 1 · COL won 4

1
0

Inn 1

Merrill 1

0
4

Inn 2

Castro 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Rumfield 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Rumfield 1

1
1

Inn 7

Campusano 1

McCarthy 1

0
1

Inn 8

Goodman 1

1

Inn 9

Cronenworth 1

SD
COL

Play-by-play · 629 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  2. T9

    Laureano grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  7. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  8. T9

    ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  9. T9

    Cronenworth grounded out to third, Campusano scored.

    · ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  12. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    · ·

    SD 3·COL 8

  13. T9

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  14. T9

    Campusano doubled to right, Campusano safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Beck.

    · ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  19. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Luis Campusano

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  20. T9

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  21. T9

    Castellanos flied out to right.

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  27. T9

    Antonio Senzatela pitches to Nick Castellanos

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 2·COL 8

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 2·COL 8

  30. B8

    ·

    SD 2·COL 8

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

COL

Home

3

Runs

8

7

Hits

15

0

Errors

1

12

TB

24

1

HR

1

3

BB

4

7

K

6

13

LOB

19

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 12·SD -163/COL +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

COL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high
  • TJ RumfieldCOL
    1.5± 1.8high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.5± 1.2high

RBIs

  • Gavin SheetsSD
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    33.4%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    34.5%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    33.1%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 2, 26sim 95
    159
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 93
    2210
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 92
    158
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 90
    1511
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 89
    2510
    27(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 88
    251
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs