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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ARI
SD

SD

18-9

7
12
ARI

ARI

15-12

Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú · Mexico City
19,671 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 14.5

open O/U 14.5

ARI no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 15.0O/U 14.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%ARI NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SD 7 · ARI 12 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0120310007
ARI0000116412

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 93
    812
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 92
    168
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 92
    55
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    1610
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 90
    88
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 90
    51
    15(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasSD -136

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off San Diego Padres, 12–7.

ARI +1.5 cashed (SD lost outright). Total cleared the 14.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Manny Machado

Manny Machado

3B

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Jose Fernandez

Jose Fernandez

DH

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD18-9
7
12
ARI15-12
SD18-9·ARI15-12
SD

SD

18-9

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010012
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44210010
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-55120000
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-55225201
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44010001
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010001
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
2-44122100
SPRINT25.818
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-44000000
Team11-38387117326
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
6.0322182
D. MorganD. MorganRP
0.1444001
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
0.2222100
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
0.1544000
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.2100100
Team8.0151212383
ARI

ARI

15-12

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
3-55334101
SPRINT26.941
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55011000
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44110012
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-44022011
SPRINT25.818
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-11000001
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
3-44331101
SPRINT29.597
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-33220010
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
2-44220001
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-44114101
SPRINT27.662
J. McCannJ. McCannC
0-44000000
Team15-3838121512338
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
5.0766242
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0111001
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0200000
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000020
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0100000
Team9.01177263

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • M. King
    106 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      30%·86.8 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.4 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.4 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      46%·82.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      33%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      4%·82.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      40%·90.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      35%·99.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      38%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      31%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Morgan
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.6 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    93 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      68%·97.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      62%·99.8 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      56%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      70%·85.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·78.7 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

15

7

Runs

12

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 25SDSD6@ARIARI4
Apr 26SDSD7@ARIARI12today

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 25SDSD6@ARIARI4
Apr 26SDSD7@ARIARI12today
Jul 7ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Jul 8ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Jul 9ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Jul 10ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Aug 4SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 5SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 6SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 7SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 26ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Sep 27ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Sep 27ARIARI@SDSDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

14.5

High-scoring · +6.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-13658%
ARIARI+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 42pp · Bottom 7th Inning

SDSD
M. Machado

M. Machado

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
J. Fernandez

J. Fernandez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SD 12-7. Gurriel Jr.'s play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Win probability

ARI vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 83% WP

Machado · homered to center (436 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 7-6
+20pp→ 28% WP

Tawa · homered to left (363 feet), Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 7-8
+42pp→ 74% WP

Gurriel Jr. · doubled to left, Carroll scored and Vargas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0120310007
ARI00001164—12

Period scoring

SD won 3 · ARI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Campusano 1

2
0

Inn 3

Machado 2

0
0

Inn 4

3
1

Inn 5

Machado 3

Fernandez 1

1
1

Inn 6

Campusano 1

Vargas 1

0
6

Inn 7

Tawa 4

0
4

Inn 8

Vargas 3

0

Inn 9

SD
ARI

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  2. T9

    Machado lined out to third.

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  4. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Manny Machado

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  5. T9

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  6. T9

    Merrill flied out to right.

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  13. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  14. T9

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  15. T9

    Tatis Jr. lined out to right.

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

    +0.9pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  23. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    · ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  24. T9

    ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  25. T9

    Laureano singled to left.

    ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

    −1pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  28. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  29. T9

    Loaisiga relieved Morillo

    ·

    SD 7·ARI 12

  30. T9

    Barrosa in left field.

    SD 7·ARI 12

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

7

Runs

12

11

Hits

15

0

Errors

1

22

TB

28

3

HR

3

2

BB

3

6

K

8

14

LOB

12

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 14.5·SD -136/ARI +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

14.5

0.0 since open

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    48.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483